Pandemic

[Nightshade]

I was just listening to this on the news and they do seem to be contradicting themselves quite a bit. One thing was some scientist was drawing comparisons to the 1918 Spanish flu. Now this horrified the reporter, but what the guy was saying is that was absolute worst case scenario and its something that can be learnt from, and we have much better medicine now so even though it is presenting the same way it is controllable, to an extent anyway now. Someone else e was saying pandemics happen every 30-40 years.
But it got me to thinking - and this is very much an example of media scaremongering. In 2002-2003 we were all going we were all going to die from SARS it killed a total of 774 and there were 8096 probable cases. (US National Center for Biotechnology Information)
and that was only a mini pandemic. Then in 2005-2007 there was the bird flu scare. Now I cant find any figures for that, but it did NOT kill six million Americans, I found a white house report saying it might, in fact I'm fairly certain it never made the human to human leap at all, it was a pandemic within the avian population but didn't translate to a full blown human pandemic.

[AimusSage]

I don't get the big deal at all. Worst case scenario, a few million or maybe a billion die along the way when there is a big outbreak, then what? It's not like humanity will end because of it. You might die, I might die, but we'll be stronger for it. Scaring people into this isn't going to change anything. It's all selfish, nobody wants to die, but if their sons and daughters die, it's very sad and heartbreaking, but you'll survive and be stronger for it. That which does not kill us makes us stronger. Instead of being so concerned with our own selfish hides we might instead use our brain for something worthwhile that will be better suited for our continued survival as a species. It's impossible to save everyone so stop trying. Overpopulation is going to end us, not some pandemic. It's nature that will sustain us rather than our medical knowledge. In the end it won't be about saving one or even millions, it'll be about sacrificing a billion to save a million.

It is another question altogether whether humanity is worth saving. It's not one I care about, there is no right answer to this. Nor should one try to find an answer. It'll only lead to distorted views of self-worth. Truly it is a selfish question, and by that in its own way provide an answer to the question.

Anyway, that's just my opinion. There are no facts or anything in there. I could probably make a better case for what I just said if I bothered, but I won't since it doesn't really matter.

[Emil Miller]

I You might die, I might die, but we'll be stronger for it.

This is going to take a bit of working out.

[AimusSage]

This is going to take a bit of working out.

Ah, yes, with 'we' I meant us as a species, not as individuals. It's all a bit of a mini rant anyway.

[Jozanny]

The big problem seems to be the numbers being used in the media. I see talk of "1600 confirmed cases", yet if the disease has already spread to USA, France, Canada and New Zealand - as seems extremely likely - then there must have been a hell of a lot more than 1600 Mexicans with swine flu, so the death rate of 108 isn't anywhere near as appalling as it looks.

Here is the official CDC site which is updated constantly.

Just as a curiosity though, I wonder why so many of the deaths occurred in Mexico, and if polution, poor health, or gun violence, was an underlying stressor.

Even though I make my living off of media, or used to, if I ever get back to normal, I wasn't trying to stir up the pot. Kelly's framework for his narrative has some weaknesses. He doesn't know if he is writing creative non-fiction about Medieval Europe and Asia, or doing an investigative study on the nature of pandemics, and he combines both modes. But if one can get past the irritation of his style, the affinity between the black death and modern plague episodes is startling.

When I can get past my internal insolence over my living conditions, I will post some notes from his research.

[Niamh]

I can't help but think... Epola, Bird flu, foot and mouth disease, you name it, and we've been told it's the next big thing...

What about the fact that more than a million people die each year of Malaria? Which is spreading by the way, due to global warming.

Well said Chava!

Thanks for that A. The media certainly has a way of blowing things out of proportion.

Yep.

The concern to me is that they're in danger of crying wolf once too often.

They sure do!
It amazes me that there is so much hype about this when many others illnesses are more significant right now. TB is a major issue across the globe right now.

[Stargazer86]

I work in a nursing home and this was addressed quite seriously in our morning meeting as we live within 2 hours of the Mexican border. We have signs posted all over the building now. There are at least 2 people in one of our local hospitals with it now and I heard someone in San Diego died from it this weekend.
This is starting to scare the sh*t out of me. Where I live is predominatly Hispanic...tons of my friends and co workers regularly go in and out of Mexico on the weekends and just whenever. Its just too close to home for comfort...

[subterranean]

It amazes me that there is so much hype about this when many others illnesses are more significant right now. TB is a major issue across the globe right now.

Well, if I get this correctly, one of the requirements for a disease to be categorized as 'pandemic' is that it has to be something 'new'. And I suppose, in general, it's the new stuffs that make the news and gain the spotlight.

[Jozanny]

Stay safe Star.

I was, for the most part, being sardonic in my approach to the discussion, which subsequently isn't so easy to sustain when the event touches someone. Don't panic either. Fear can be just as bad, if not worse, than getting infected.

[dramasnot6]

I know this is the serious forum, but I think this XKCD comic is somewhat relevant.
http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/swine_flu.png

[Niamh]

I work in a nursing home and this was addressed quite seriously in our morning meeting as we live within 2 hours of the Mexican border. We have signs posted all over the building now. There are at least 2 people in one of our local hospitals with it now and I heard someone in San Diego died from it this weekend.
This is starting to scare the sh*t out of me. Where I live is predominatly Hispanic...tons of my friends and co workers regularly go in and out of Mexico on the weekends and just whenever. Its just too close to home for comfort...

I work in an airport. Common cold/ flus/ tummy bugs etc spread like wildfire in airports. I've been in the last three days and not one notice. We still have the signs up for avian bird flu though!

[Jozanny]

Well, if I get this correctly, one of the requirements for a disease to be categorized as 'pandemic' is that it has to be something 'new'. And I suppose, in general, it's the new stuffs that make the news and gain the spotlight.

No, a pandemic is when the disease infects in two countries independently of the epicenter. Person A goes to Mexico and goes to Spain and infects a Spainard, but when 100 Spainards die independently of that source, and then in Italy, that is near to red alert.

[Niamh]

Well, if I get this correctly, one of the requirements for a disease to be categorized as 'pandemic' is that it has to be something 'new'. And I suppose, in general, it's the new stuffs that make the news and gain the spotlight.

This is true, but do new strains of common illnesses not fall under this catagory? I read reports on the new strain of TB recently and is mainly spreading amongst the young in nightclubs etc and showing some immunity to the TB vacination...

[Chava]

Not to mention that Malaria has gained resistance to every cure ever found for it. Pumping money into finding a cure isn't cost effective, so it has largely been ignored. Recently Bill Gates (who is very occupied with finding a cure) opened a jar of mosquito's at a conference with the big money men, and said that he felt there was no reason we shouldn't all fear this global disease, even if we live in places where it doesn't exist anymore. Only after the panic did he say that the mosquito's were malaria free.

[subterranean]

No, a pandemic is when the disease infects in two countries independently of the epicenter. Person A goes to Mexico and goes to Spain and infects a Spainard, but when 100 Spainards die independently of that source, and then in Italy, that is near to red alert.

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian...aqs/en/#areall

Scroll down to the sub heading, 'what about the pandemic risk'. Of course the point where it spreads rapidly among people plus between borders, is also another conditions to call a disease as pandemic.