Pandemic

[Virgil]

I don't agree with you on this Virgil at all. I think they have worked hard to contain it; I think left unchecked and ignored it could be much worse. I believe the key note in this article is the fact that this particular virus doesn't not kill people at high risk but rather healthy individuals.

Well then they should work hard on the regular flu iof 500,000 people die every year from it. Seems like they haven't prioritized correctly.

What exactly have they done to contain it? Other than send kids home from school I haven't really heard of anything. Were there swine flu shots? No. Did they go door to door to test people? No. Did they isolate people? No. We had 12 deaths here in New York City. All I see is a lot of fear and very little action.

[Janine]

Virgil, where are you getting that number of dead from regular flu? 500,000 a year? I would be interested in seeing your source for that statistic. Also, I would like to know if these are high risk or elderly people, falling into that majority. I don't know of anyone who died of flu in my own neighborhood or even my town or amongst my friends. Also, what is 'regular flu' anyway?

[The Atheist]

It also says in there that 29,000 people world wide have been infected.

That's the problem - that figure is understated by an order of magnitude. It's estimated that at least 250k people have already had the disease.

[Virgil]

Virgil, where are you getting that number of dead from regular flu? 500,000 a year? I would be interested in seeing your source for that statistic. Also, I would like to know if these are high risk or elderly people, falling into that majority. I don't know of anyone who died of flu in my own neighborhood or even my town or amongst my friends. Also, what is 'regular flu' anyway?

Right out of the article you posted.

That's the problem - that figure is understated by an order of magnitude. It's estimated that at least 250k people have already had the disease.

How do you know that?

[Janine]

Virgil,the answer to you about Atheist's post would be because "medicine is not an exact science" Has anyone ever heard that expression before?....many people failed to even go to a doctor so how can they set forth exact figures? ....I still wonder what they mean by 'regular flu', as opposed to this strain; they say there are zillions of strains. I didn't read the article completely. I will copy it out and read it later. Watching a movie now. I better watch all the movies I can, before this Swine flu attacks me!

[Virgil]

I'm sorry. I'm convinced that this was way over blown, media hype, and based on irrational fears.

[The Atheist]

It is a type A H1N1 influenza. While this is not precisely the same as previous type A H1N1 viruses, anyone who had type A H1N1 influenza in the past will have immunity to this one. The immunity diminishes over time, but the 1918 pandemic was type A H1N1, and the Russian flu of 1977 was also type A H1N1.

I'm hoping that's correct - as it seems to be; I had that Russian 'flu and was on my back and delirious for a week.

I did not have a formal diagnosis, as is the case for most people. I woldn't have thought anything of it, if the talk of Swine Flu wasn't around. The course of my sickness was what they describe for the Swine Flu: coldlike symptoms for a few days, vomitting, diareahia, abdominal pain, tiredness, etc. The intestinal symptoms were what tipped me off. I have only had intestinal problems from flu once before.

Yes, that is an unusual feature, so you're probably right. I've seen several reports from tested A-H1N1 patients who've said that they weren't sick enough to think they had any kind of influenza.

How do you know that?

Margaret Chan said that "over 100,000 people have A-H1N1" about a fortnight back, so it would be reasonable to think that figure's at least doubled in two weeks.

Also, as I've said before, the numbers in Mexico simply don't add up. If only 5000 Mexicans had A-H1N1 at the start of May, then it would extremely unlikely that so many people travelling to different parts of Mexico would have had the virus. Given the lack of fever in many cases, there is a huge number of people who haven't been to the doctor with it and have never been counted.

Take a look at the death figures as well from Mexico. The numbers are consistent with a really bad pandemic at almost 1%. Based on half the world contracting the virus in the next 20 months, we would expect a death toll of 30,000,000. Since the virus hasn't mutated [yet], it's reasonable to figure that Mexico's real number of people who have had the virus is more like 1.5 million than the 15k quoted.

We know the virus has a lower death rate than seasonal 'flu, so unless there's some inexplicable anomaly which makes it more lethal in Mexico, the numbers are just wrong.

While I'm using the 250k people as consistent with the WHO, I really think the number already infected is in the millions. That would make the maths work out as you'd expect from a "mild influenza" (WHO's words)

[Zee.]

I personally think they need to stop this Quarantine nonsense and just let it take it's natural cycle and spread. And well, may the strong survive!

*joking.
Still, i think this quarantine nonsense is just delaying the inevitable..


ALSO, i was watching I am Legend, and the virus in that infected humans in the year... 2009! maybe we'll all turn in to pigs and consume each other.


Lets hope.

It's all nonsense to me. People are dying all over the place because of starvation and we're all worried about swine flu? pretty pathetic and selfish

[Virgil]

Margaret Chan said that "over 100,000 people have A-H1N1" about a fortnight back, so it would be reasonable to think that figure's at least doubled in two weeks.

Also, as I've said before, the numbers in Mexico simply don't add up. If only 5000 Mexicans had A-H1N1 at the start of May, then it would extremely unlikely that so many people travelling to different parts of Mexico would have had the virus. Given the lack of fever in many cases, there is a huge number of people who haven't been to the doctor with it and have never been counted.

Take a look at the death figures as well from Mexico. The numbers are consistent with a really bad pandemic at almost 1%. Based on half the world contracting the virus in the next 20 months, we would expect a death toll of 30,000,000. Since the virus hasn't mutated [yet], it's reasonable to figure that Mexico's real number of people who have had the virus is more like 1.5 million than the 15k quoted.

We know the virus has a lower death rate than seasonal 'flu, so unless there's some inexplicable anomaly which makes it more lethal in Mexico, the numbers are just wrong.

While I'm using the 250k people as consistent with the WHO, I really think the number already infected is in the millions. That would make the maths work out as you'd expect from a "mild influenza" (WHO's words)

That sounds like a reasonable analysis and not inconsistent with what I characterized as over blown hype.

[The Atheist]

I personally think they need to stop this Quarantine nonsense and just let it take it's natural cycle and spread. And well, may the strong survive!

*joking.
Still, i think this quarantine nonsense is just delaying the inevitable..


ALSO, i was watching I am Legend, and the virus in that infected humans in the year... 2009! maybe we'll all turn in to pigs and consume each other.


Lets hope.

It's all nonsense to me. People are dying all over the place because of starvation and we're all worried about swine flu? pretty pathetic and selfish

Bravo!

Just a guide - since the outbreak of A-H1N1 was first recorded in April, 144 people have died of swine 'flu.

During that same period, 140 THOUSAND children have died of "cluster" diseases. Those are diseases which kids can be immunised against*

210,000 - mostly very young children - have died from diarrhoea.

56,000 have died from malnutrition/starvation.

Source.

* and we're messing around with worries about a vaccine against a disease which amounts to little more than the common cold. Selfish? The west? No way!

That sounds like a reasonable analysis and not inconsistent with what I characterized as over blown hype.

Now, now, all those thousands of people employed in western health regulation departments have to justify the enormous salaries they earn.

[Virgil]

Now, now, all those thousands of people employed in western health regulation departments have to justify the enormous salaries they earn.

I always enjoy your sense of humor A.

[blazeofglory]

This planet is already burdened with too many sinners, and greedy people and we are exploiting resources beyond measures and harnessing everything the planet can offer greedily beyond capacities, and if this keeps on going anything unthinkable may happen. The earth is really a beautiful place to live in and it is home to not only humans but to the rest of others, but we ruthlessly and ruthlessly engage in destroying everything that is conducive to other animals and plants colonizing or monopolizing everything the mother earth graced us, and this greediness has to come to an end and the pandemics we do have now and we had in the past as a reply or response of Mother Nature to us. We must pretty understand this fact.

[AlaskaDan]

If a person searches the records, on line, of things that people die of, you will find that falling off of ladders is very high on the list, as is choking. There are many things that one can die of that kill far more people than any current flu virus. Just wash your hands and cook your food along with other reasonable precautions, and all should go well. If you get sick and die, well, you were probably going to get sick and die anyway.
Life is extremely fragile and people die from crazy stuff all the time.
The News media gets far more mileage out of their "sky is falling" attitude than by adopting a more measured approach.

[Jozanny]

Thanks Dan. I was never really worried about H1N1, even though cerebral palsy gave me a vulnerable respiratory system and I have emphysema-- at a stage which pisses me off, because I am behind enough, but one day I'd like to return to the issues raised in the book that I started the thread with, which reminds me that I have to dig it out of the box.