Perhaps you're right : Natasha became dazzled by Anatole because she waited too long for Andrey to come back and was just yearning for passion and affection. Perhaps that incident with Anatole was just a "transference" of her passion for Andrey to Anatole. I'll take your word for it that you have to be a man to fully understand Andrey.
With regard to Volkonsky family, Tolstoy's own mother was actually a Volkonsky (Maria Volkonsky) and in describing the Bolkonsky family, Tolstoy actually used family chronicles. Thus, Princess Marya and Prince Nikolay were based on his mother and grandfather respectively. Except that his mother was an only child and didn't have a brother --- so Andrey is just a fictional character.
Before writing " War and Peace ", Tolstoy wanted to write " The Decembrists " , and for that he interviewed a distant relative of his mother --- Prince Sergei Volkonsky, a Decembrist who had recently returned from Siberia. So perhaps we can surmise that Andrey was destined for a fate of a Decembrist, based on the fact that there was a Volkonsky Decembrist in Tolstoy's family.
Have you read Nekrassov's " The Russian women " ? In it, he describes two women Princess Maria Volkonskaya ( wife of Sergey ) and Princess Ekaterina Troubetzkaya who follow their husbands into exile to Siberia. It's a very interesting read.
With regard to revolutions in Russia, the autocratic regime was so severe and inhuman that all thise revolutions were justified. However, I do agree that the massacre of Nicholas II ' s family was monstrous, particularly of their children ! But, in a way, Nicholas and Alexandra through their own stupid actions contributed to that end --- i.e. Alexandra listening to Rasputin when choosing ministers, Nicholas appointing himself Commander-in-Chief and his inexperienced and unpopular wife to rule the country during WWI, Nicholas' stubborn refusal to create a constitutional monarchy in Russia --- the list goes on !


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