Could 1984 actually become a reality?

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05-06-2008, 05:21 PM
RandomPrecision

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Nope, I think you're badly wrong, but to tell you why would be to get into politics, so we can't do that.

The reason references to 1984 abound right now is that Orwell and 1984 have been largely hijacked by pubescent boys who like to pretend to be revolutionary by seeing consipracies on every street corner. It's essentially a form of cowardice - attack organisations which will not act against you - governments and government agencies.

Don't respect the ravings of a small number of idiots to let you think the world is inexorably headed towards 1984.

My thoughts are not based upon the ravings of idiots and pubescent boys.

They're based upon my own observations of a society that is becoming more and more tolerant of government interference in all aspects of everyday life. What happens when people trust a government too much? I think it's a society that is ripe for something similar to what is depicted in 1984. Perhaps not down to the last detail. Maybe the government will never be able to rule so completely. But technology is making things possible that have never, ever been possible in human history. Who knows what could happen?

I don't think it's so much a "conspiracy" as it is just society and government doing what comes naturally. Wanting more and more control in order to make life more convenient and safer for the collective (To the very real detriment of some individuals). IOW, it doesn't have to be some vast, grand conspiracy in order for it to just gradually happen.

I've been thinking about this for quite a while. I haven't been hanging out with conspiracy theorists and talking about the NWO or black helicopters or any of that. I've just been quietly observing and theorizing on what could possibly happen based upon what's happening now.

I've also been observing people's behavior. And how easily manipulated most people are. This is easy with the internet. People will blurt out things online they'd never say in person. Not because they aren't thinking it. But because they feel more comfortable online. All of the things Orwell wrote about (Newspeak, doublethink, thoughtcrime, etc) are happening. In fact, it's out in the open. Nobody is even trying to hide it. It's just that few recognize it for what it is and those few are ridiculed if they say anything.

I think it's highly possible a future world could be worse than anything Orwell could have imagined. But it may be that it won't seem bad to most of it's inhabitants because it will just be the way things are and they'll have just gotten used to it. Like "traffic cameras". We're used to them. I don't even really notice them. But when you really think about it, they are creepy in that BB sort of way when you realize how many of them there are.

The internet is creepy in that it has the potential to become the next best (or worst) thing to having a physical camera in every home in the world. All it really takes is a government that decides it wants to know everything and it can be done. Would our government do this? I don't know. Could they? Sure. When something can happen, it's usually a good idea to watch for signs that it is happening or will. Because that's just the way things are. People will often do whatever they can do. Or, as they say, whatever they can get by with.

So what I was saying wasn't that what is now or what may be to come will be 1984 down to the finest detail. But it could be something similar. A little imagination. I think Orwell was more right than wrong about the future he imagined. There are things that were unheard of in his time that have come to pass (in some form) and in fact, become commonplace.
05-07-2008, 04:09 AM
bazarov

Quote:

Originally Posted by RandomPrecision

What happens when people trust a government too much? But technology is making things possible that have never, ever been possible in human history. Who knows what could happen?

People will never trust their government too much, they barely trust them anything; it always was like that and I am pretty sure it always will be. Technology is today powerful tool in leading and controlling, but proles also have it; and they can also hack/hijack/control government; which is obviously happening. In real world humans have possibility, proles didn't have it.

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I've also been observing people's behavior. And how easily manipulated most people are. This is easy with the internet. All of the things Orwell wrote about (Newspeak, doublethink, thoughtcrime, etc) are happening. In fact, it's out in the open. Nobody is even trying to hide it. It's just that few recognize it for what it is and those few are ridiculed if they say anything.

People are easily manipulated because they are stupid, and they were stupid before internet and will be stupid if you forbid them usage of internet. You, me, The Atheist; we also use internet, but I doubt anyone can manipulate us. After all, you can shut down your computer, nobody is forcing you to use it.
That last part reminds me on Conspiracy Theory...

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People will blurt out things online they'd never say in person. Not because they aren't thinking it. But because they feel more comfortable online.

It's a human thing, not an Orwellian thing. It's easier to people to say some things through SMS, letters, Skype, MSN or anything like that than face to face. It's unpleasant for people to say some things face to face, I am sure you were in situations like that; we all were.
05-07-2008, 06:55 AM
RandomPrecision

Quote:

Originally Posted by bazarov

People will never trust their government too much, they barely trust them anything; it always was like that and I am pretty sure it always will be. Technology is today powerful tool in leading and controlling, but proles also have it; and they can also hack/hijack/control government; which is obviously happening. In real world humans have possibility, proles didn't have it.

Well. I don't know where you live but here in America, there are things people don't trust the government on and things they just don't see as a threat. They generally don't like things like taxes and socialized medicine but few people complain about cameras everywhere or a loss of privacy. What it comes down to is that here, people care more about money and easy living than they do about individual rights.

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People are easily manipulated because they are stupid, and they were stupid before internet and will be stupid if you forbid them usage of internet. You, me, The Atheist; we also use internet, but I doubt anyone can manipulate us. After all, you can shut down your computer, nobody is forcing you to use it.

Of course I realize that I'm using the very technology that I distrust. But I also recognize it as a threat. I try to warn people (when they'll listen).

I also realize that people were stupid before the internet. This is nothing new. People have been using technology they didn't understand for some time now. But it's getting more and more sophisticated and fewer and fewer people actually understand it. I don't understand it myself. But I know enough to know there could be consequences that nobody ever imagined. Or if they did, they just didn't say so.

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That last part reminds me on Conspiracy Theory...

Yes. But I guess you didn't get what I was saying. If anyone who sounds the alarm is ridiculed as being a conspiracy lunatic, it's a whole lot easier for a real conspiracy to actually happen. Because people don't like to be ridiculed. It's a form of social pressure that's been used to silence people and is often quite effective.

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It's a human thing, not an Orwellian thing. It's easier to people to say some things through SMS, letters, Skype, MSN or anything like that than face to face. It's unpleasant for people to say some things face to face, I am sure you were in situations like that; we all were.

I think you misunderstood. I realize why people are more comfortable talking about some things online. I was trying to point out that I've read a lot of what many people have to say when they don't feel like they have to hold anything back and have consequently gotten a pretty good idea of how and what most people think. And the picture this paints is an entire civilization that is ripe for being controlled. Even people who claim to be free thinkers follow the herd more often than not. Whether or not that is done knowingly, I'm not sure.

People can be manipulated in many, many ways. A master manipulator would have a blast with a country like America. Not because everyone in America is easily manipulated. But because most are and the minority is always ignored in countries like America.
05-07-2008, 12:14 PM
Castalian Girl

I think world is moving towards society described in 1984 and Fahrenheit 451. I believe (this is only my personal opinion) that key issue is motive and the way governments (or whichever powers to be) are trying to achieve such model of society. Usual motive is need to have more power or ability to fill their pockets (relatives often included in dictatorships ;) ). Orwell described society driven by fear (children accusing their own parents for not loving Big Brother), Bradbury described people who only entertain themselves and live empty lives, never questioning anything (not because they are afraid to, but because they firmly believe they don't need to).
The world can become combination of the two. After all, large numbers of people watch TV and read Dan Brown rather than think or try to produce something creative and read Shakespeare, Faulkner, Homer or Orwell. These people also like to believe they are free individuals because they can spend their money, go out clubbing or buy a house. And the world IS free for those fitting the profile of majority. But even today, being different is hard. How come you don't want to have a nice house, family, cat, dog and nice car? How come new fashion and new TV show is not interesting? Everyone loves it, why can't you?
Back to motive: as long as majority is busy with earning money and spending money on things they don't need (you MUST have beautiful, perfect white teeth, new mobile phone, new clothes... you must see the new club and like it there because everyone else thinks its great; you must believe in god/gods/something-above-us-all, you must love to travel and spend more money because it relaxes you...), government can do something else - raise taxes, cut down social care... So, no, maybe we won't live in society where police would arrest us for thinking, reading books or painting. But majority would think readers, artists or intellectuals are weird and slowly, but surely, isolate the weirdoes. Why put blood on your hands when everything can be done so easily and legally?
Make sure that majority believes they are happy and free. Majority will quiet down the minority. And there you go, problem solved. Everyone is watching new celebrity on premiere, no need to bother with boring statistics about ageing population and need for more effective social care. After all, perfect, beautiful people look better on TV than old women who can't afford face-lifting.
Being a pioneer and promote your party or being an average consumer and promote spending money lifestyle - what is different?
05-07-2008, 05:47 PM
The Atheist

This theead really is getting quite reminiscent of some CT threads I've been involved in elsewhere.

Quote:

Originally Posted by RandomPrecision

They're based upon my own observations of a society that is becoming more and more tolerant of government interference in all aspects of everyday life.

Ok. I'll make a call on this, because I don't accept it for a second.

In what way is society more tolerant of government intervention than is say, 1948?

Quote:

Originally Posted by RandomPrecision

What happens when people trust a government too much?

When and how can this happen? People get sick of governments after extended periods - recent poll results in two major democracies - UK and USA - show that most people don't trust the government at all.

Quote:

Originally Posted by RandomPrecision

I think it's a society that is ripe for something similar to what is depicted in 1984. Perhaps not down to the last detail. Maybe the government will never be able to rule so completely. But technology is making things possible that have never, ever been possible in human history. Who knows what could happen?

Fortunately, we have a couple of superb examples of governments which tried to completely control the people. Despite the best efforts of hundreds of thousands of KGB agents, plus the millions sent to the Gulag, what happened to USSR?

Quote:

Originally Posted by RandomPrecision

I don't think it's so much a "conspiracy" as it is just society and government doing what comes naturally. Wanting more and more control in order to make life more convenient and safer for the collective (To the very real detriment of some individuals). IOW, it doesn't have to be some vast, grand conspiracy in order for it to just gradually happen.

Unfortunately, that's exactly what it does have to do. No politician I can think of wants to "control" the populace - aside from the odd Green Party members maybe. The natural form of democratic government is "hands off".

Quote:

Originally Posted by RandomPrecision

I've been thinking about this for quite a while. I haven't been hanging out with conspiracy theorists and talking about the NWO or black helicopters or any of that. I've just been quietly observing and theorizing on what could possibly happen based upon what's happening now.

Fair enough. I just think your observations are flawed.

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Originally Posted by RandomPrecision

I've also been observing people's behavior. And how easily manipulated most people are.

Hate to tell you, but this is nothing new. Religion once held total control of the people, with 99.99+% of people believing what they were told by priests. Now, USA is the last bastion of christianity, with almost all other Western nations having more secular people than religion.

Given that religion covers not only this life, but also the next, would not religion still be universally believed if people were really as stupid as you paint them?

I can guarantee you that if your premise held any water at all, Bazarov and I would be the first two blokes on your boat. As it happens, we seem to be of the opinion that you're worrying about nothing.

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Originally Posted by RandomPrecision

This is easy with the internet. People will blurt out things online they'd never say in person. Not because they aren't thinking it. But because they feel more comfortable online.

Yep, I did a study on this some time back, and that's purely to do with anonymity. People are more comfortable when they aren't able to see the eyes of the person they're talking to. This has no relevance at all to your claim.

Quote:

Originally Posted by RandomPrecision

All of the things Orwell wrote about (Newspeak, doublethink, thoughtcrime, etc) are happening. In fact, it's out in the open. Nobody is even trying to hide it. It's just that few recognize it for what it is and those few are ridiculed if they say anything.

Well, instead of ridiculing you for it, I'll just ask for some evidence to back up your assertion that "All of the things Orwell wrote about (Newspeak, doublethink, thoughtcrime, etc) are happening."

I claim that none of them are happening - please provide your evidence to the contrary. (Note: evidence consists of actual facts and copies of what you mean rather than an assertion that these things have happened.

As I see it, Newspeak does not exist, nor have I seen any signs of it being attempted. (and I am a linguist, for what it's worth)

Doublethink has always existed. Astrology is a perfect example of it in operation, where one must believe that the earth is the centre of the universe to accept astrology as true. We know for certain that the earth is nowhere near the centre of the universe and that the stars do not orbit the earth, yet people choose to believe it. That, however doesn't fit your scenario, where you are talking about political doublethink - politicians lying about their intentions. That is nothing new. If you have examples of political doubelthink beyond old-fashioned lying, please present it.

Thoughtcrime does not exist in USA, UK or any developed nation. That is self-evident from the fact that conspiracy theorists are allowed to spew their ridiculous garbage about 9/11, JFK, chemtrails, anti-AGW and many other subjects, without any thoughts of censure. If you have evidence to the contrary, please present it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by RandomPrecision

I think it's highly possible a future world could be worse than anything Orwell could have imagined.

I think that's extremely likely, but on a completely different scenario.

Food shortages, climate change, disease and over-population will ensure humanity has a bleak future, but it has nothing to do with your premise.

Quote:

Originally Posted by RandomPrecision

But it may be that it won't seem bad to most of it's inhabitants because it will just be the way things are and they'll have just gotten used to it. Like "traffic cameras". We're used to them. I don't even really notice them. But when you really think about it, they are creepy in that BB sort of way when you realize how many of them there are.

Traffic cameras creepy?

A device which saves an incaculable number of lives annually by modifying driver behaviour into a safer mode? How are traffic cameras restricting freedom or helping government control? I've had two extremely close brushes with death thanks to traffic screaming through red lights and I'll be happy when every single traffic light has a camera on it.

Aside from the obvious point that those obeying the law will never be caught by a traffic camera.

I see no connection to BB at all.

Quote:

Originally Posted by RandomPrecision

The internet is creepy in that it has the potential to become the next best (or worst) thing to having a physical camera in every home in the world. All it really takes is a government that decides it wants to know everything and it can be done.

In what way can the government add a camera to the internet without our knowledge? Or enforce having a camera on? My computer has no webcam and it sits in my office anyway. When I'm not at the computer, even a secret camera is going to show nothing about me to anyone. Have you even thought this stuff through? It certainly doesn't appear so. I submit that any government which advocated online cameras for surveillance would be voted out in very short order indeed.

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Originally Posted by RandomPrecision

Would our government do this? I don't know. Could they? Sure.

See above, no they couldn't.

Quote:

Originally Posted by RandomPrecision

When something can happen, it's usually a good idea to watch for signs that it is happening or will. Because that's just the way things are. People will often do whatever they can do. Or, as they say, whatever they can get by with.

There's a name for that - paranoia. An irrational fear of being watched or followed. That kind of thinking leads to madness. What if Mars attacks? or Venus? Or if alien microbes from Betelgeuse 5 make their way to earth in their invisble interstellar craft?

Quote:

Originally Posted by RandomPrecision

So what I was saying wasn't that what is now or what may be to come will be 1984 down to the finest detail. But it could be something similar. A little imagination. I think Orwell was more right than wrong about the future he imagined. There are things that were unheard of in his time that have come to pass (in some form) and in fact, become commonplace.

Well, hopefully, you'll be able to adapt that view.

Ask yourself this:

If governments were so keen to turn the world into 1984 why have all democracies enacted privacy legislation? This legislation is a barrier to what you're suggesting, so a government wanting to reduce privacy wouldn't waste its time enacting privacy laws, would it? And if you think "double-bluff", then I suggest the above paranoia comment may fit. (I don't mean that nastily, but if you did think that way, I'd be concerned at your state of mind.)
05-07-2008, 07:08 PM
RandomPrecision

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Atheist

In what way can the government add a camera to the internet without our knowledge? Or enforce having a camera on? My computer has no webcam and it sits in my office anyway. When I'm not at the computer, even a secret camera is going to show nothing about me to anyone. Have you even thought this stuff through? It certainly doesn't appear so. I submit that any government which advocated online cameras for surveillance would be voted out in very short order indeed.

You either aren't reading very carefully or you're deliberately misinterpreting what I'm saying. I said the next best thing to a physical camera. Which means I wasn't talking about a camera at all.

What you do and say and where you go online would tell anyone who was watching for patterns a lot more about you than an actual camera probably could. A standard video camera can't see anything but your face if you're just sitting at your desk. A hard drive recording everything you do online, every object you click on, every URL you visit, everything you download or upload could tell an observer more about you than your own mother knows. Computers and sophisticated analytical software make things possible that just couldn't be done easily in the past.

So. This is not something that is a secret. And I'm not even saying anyone would want to do this. But it is possible. Unless you're really geeky and really know your stuff, it's pretty difficult to be invisible online. Many people feel like they have more privacy online than they actually do.

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There's a name for that - paranoia. An irrational fear of being watched or followed.

Well. That pretty much seals it. I can see that you have your views and I have mine.

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That kind of thinking leads to madness. What if Mars attacks? or Venus?

These things are not possible as far as we know. Hitler and Stalin proved that what I'm talking about can happen more easily than some people are comfortable with. And while it didn't work in either case, many millions of people paid the ultimate price for the lack of some kind of vigilance.

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Or if alien microbes from Betelgeuse 5 make their way to earth in their invisble interstellar craft?

Possible, but extremely unlikely.

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Ask yourself this:

If governments were so keen to turn the world into 1984 why have all democracies enacted privacy legislation?

Do you watch the news? I'm just curious. We have privacy laws but we also have people who seem intent on tearing them up. Why would they want to do that? There are people who try to protect privacy. But when something like 9/11 happens, people throw caution to the wind. You'd be surprised how many people don't believe a person has any right to privacy. Anywhere. Is it a majority of people? I don't know. Probably not. Not yet anyway.

As I said, people don't trust the government. You're absolutely right about that. But they're more concerned about other things. We are a race of beings who don't think about the future. Oh, yeah. Intellectuals do but the guy on the street? He wants his GPS and his internet connectivity and so forth. It's impossible to calculate all possible outcomes of everything that is done. But we have been very reckless with technology. Frankly, I'm surprised we survived the cold war.
05-08-2008, 09:07 PM
The Atheist

Quote:

Originally Posted by RandomPrecision

A hard drive recording everything you do online, every object you click on, every URL you visit, everything you download or upload could tell an observer more about you than your own mother knows.

Sorry, but this is just wrong.

In all honesty, following someone's browser is likely to reveal very little about them. In my case, a watcher would see that I post here, at another couple of fora, play cards and read news sites. Certainly, someone who spends all their life online may be revealing, but you'd think those people would hardly be worth watching anyway.

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Originally Posted by RandomPrecision

But we have been very reckless with technology.

While I'm not sure I'd use "reckless" the comment does echo this gem:

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Originally Posted by Carl Sagan

We have also arranged things so that almost no one understands science and technology. This is a prescription for disaster. We might get away with it for a while, but sooner or later this combustible mixture of ignorance and power is going to blow up in our faces.
05-09-2008, 02:01 AM
RandomPrecision

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Atheist

Sorry, but this is just wrong.

In all honesty, following someone's browser is likely to reveal very little about them. In my case, a watcher would see that I post here, at another couple of fora, play cards and read news sites. Certainly, someone who spends all their life online may be revealing, but you'd think those people would hardly be worth watching anyway.

Well, I guess I should have said someone who may want to observe an average person who is curious and very active online would be able to get a lot of information.

If you have the time, Watch the video at the following URL. It's pretty long but well worth watching if you're even the slightest bit intrigued as to where the internet could take us. I think most people already vaguely know most of the things this guy is talking about. But this guy in this video isn't a conspiracy theory nut. He's a private investigator. You can believe the things he says.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?do...J4Xw4QKCsKynDA

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While I'm not sure I'd use "reckless" the comment does echo this gem:

I guess that's one thing we can agree on. I actually had that quote in mind when I was making that post so it's kind of ironic that you posted it.

Carl was brilliant and if he were alive today, I think he'd be fascinated with the internet.

So look. I think what I was trying to say is this. If you had anything to hide from the hypothetical thought police (anything at all, no matter how insignificant), just from where we're at today, it would be next to impossible. Is BB a reality right now? Not really. As I said, in some ways, yes. But not on the scale of 1984. What I was saying is that there's a lot of potential for things to go in that direction. If you watch the video I posted the link to, I don't see how you could argue that isn't the case. Can I say for certain that's what's going to happen? No. Can anyone? No. Will it be exactly like 1984? Probably not.

There's a lot of stuff that goes on at the government level that is classified. If we do hear about it (And I'll grant you that we usually do in some form or another), it's usually 10 years after the fact or something. And there's a lot of stuff that just happens. Not because some sinister group is meeting in some dark cellar somewhere plotting our demise. But because it's just a normal byproduct of the way we live and the technology we use.

The only thing that it really takes for an Orwellian situation to become a reality is the will. The way is already there. And it will only get easier. The Nazis used every bit of technology that was available to them. They used machines that were made by IBM. They kept track of people by keeping records and used the records that the old government had left behind to identify, for example, Jews and gays. Gays were also tracked down by magazine subscriptions and other such things. Seemingly harmless info that can be misused. Now we live in a society that keeps track of everything. I don't believe our government has any terribly sinister ambitions at the moment or in the foreseeable near future but as I said, I doubt people living in Germany in the 1920s thought so either. At least, I doubt that they could have even imagined what was going to happen.
05-10-2008, 04:16 AM
The Atheist

Quote:

Originally Posted by RandomPrecision

Well, I guess I should have said someone who may want to observe an average person who is curious and very active online would be able to get a lot of information.

Yes, and as always, the driver is money and the thrust of internet access is all commercially driven. Certainly, the US and other western military can and do search all internet text for keywords in the "war on terror" and that could be expanded upon should a government ever decide to do so.

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Originally Posted by RandomPrecision

If you have the time, Watch the video at the following URL. It's pretty long but well worth watching if you're even the slightest bit intrigued as to where the internet could take us.

Wow, he is the most boring man ever to stand in front of a video camera! I bet the rush to get out at 2 pm was like a fire exit.

I skimmed through enough to know where he was going and I'm aware of all the technology available and how it works. I agree that it has the potential to be used harmfully, but so did TV - and to some extent it was. (and still is)

I just don't buy the chance of it ever being used against us, unless we're breaking laws, in which case, good job!

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Originally Posted by RandomPrecision

I guess that's one thing we can agree on. I actually had that quote in mind when I was making that post so it's kind of ironic that you posted it.

Carl was brilliant and if he were alive today, I think he'd be fascinated with the internet.

Agree entirely. One of the few true immortals - as long as man exists, people will discuss Sagan; I feel privileged just to have shared the planet with him.

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Originally Posted by RandomPrecision

So look. I think what I was trying to say is this. If you had anything to hide from the hypothetical thought police (anything at all, no matter how insignificant), just from where we're at today, it would be next to impossible.

I think you've created a dichotomy where all thought crime is internet related and I think that's where you miss out. Only the really stupid crooks have any record of anything, online or otherwise. Like spies, they operate on a need-to-know basis. Just have a look at organised crime - is it reduced or increased in the past half century? Is drug dealing still a problem anywhere in the world?

Basically, if governments could use the internet or any of its descendants to control the population, they'd be doing it firstly in the name of justice - exactly as USMI uses the internet in the WoT. It ain't happening. There were two keys which made the telescreen infinitely more useful than a computer, or even computer + cellphone will ever be:

They could not be turned off by anyone other than Inner Party members.

They covered everything. Winston was unique in having an alcove invisible to the telescreen. He missed the point that its mere invisibility was a clue to his unorthodoxy, so the telescreen even gave that away. Until we are unable to use the "off" switch, nothing's a problem as regards giving away secrets. If you have secrets, don't put them on a MySpace page.

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Originally Posted by RandomPrecision

The only thing that it really takes for an Orwellian situation to become a reality is the will. The way is already there. And it will only get easier.

The trouble with the will for it is the history of those who have come close. You mentioned Nazi Germany - a classic example of why it won't work now.

Alongside the mass media, the internet has enabled groups of people from all across all spectrums of life - radical islam to christianity to Buddhists to anarchists to liberals to conservatives to literature fans. Every interest group has its own network of information. Mine comes entirely from alternative media sources which are read by hundreds of thousands. The net itself would defeat any attempt to control it covertly and overt measures are fairly remote, in my opinion.

I think the threats facing humans for the next century or so will all be physical ones.

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