It seems to me that to deny biblical allegory betrays
a shallow understanding of the text. I don't know how
such an approach could be regarded as taking it more
"seriously"...peace..
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Admittedly, I have not read all the responses. OP, you are correct in that the ancients to believe that Jesus was most likely born in the spring, not only the birth of the lamb, but the census and other reasons.
However, when converting pegans, Christians found it easier to take some of the traditionhs that they had and give them new meaning. So they took the darkest time of the year and added the brightest light; the coldest season and added warmth. The festival of Yule and incorporated new ideas; evergreen boughs which had been a symbol of immortality became the unending love of God to send his only son, etc.