Utilitarianism and Major Revolutions
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Baudolina
I agree with the first paragraph. But doesn't the second paragraph contradict the first? We can never "make sure to be right about the facts," that is, have 100% certainty that the ends we envision are what will in fact happen. The mistake the Communists made was assigning 100% probability to the outcome "ideal society," when in fact it was less than this. That is, they did an improper calculation.
And, even if they had done it correctly (assuming this is possible lol), it may have been that it came out with net positive virtue points. So, the revolution was the right thing to do then, even if it ultimately failed. It's like gambling from the casino's point of view: things are biased in their favor, so the "expected value" of each slot machine crank is positive (for them)--but, they could lose and have to pay out.
Gambling is the perfect analogy, variance evens out eventually and the right decisions pay off in the long run. The contradiction is only superficial because there's nothing impossible about being right IN PRINCIPLE. Of course, practically, people do have biases and wrong world views, but since our goal is to act ethically, and since a huge component of that is to be well informed about issues regarding human nature and human well-being, we should just try to educate ourself in philosophy, science, and whatever else has got something to do with it.
One important future issue where utilitarian reasoning clashes with common sense intuitions is 'transhumanism', the artificial improvement of the human genome. If we can make people happier, healthier, more balanced, more intelligent, less aggressive and all that, why not do it? Prohibiting this would cause a huge amount of unnecessary suffering, yet for some reason many people are appalled by the mere thought of it. There might be side effects, sure, but that doesn't mean we should dismiss the idea a priori. A lot of research into these subjects will have to be done, and eventually people will reach an informed conclusion. By the way, don't think of 'Brave New World' right now, there are much smarter ways to improve human nature, ones that actually produce fulfilling happiness, not some drug induced numbness..
The hardest question in my opinion deals with the value of democracy. If the experts agree that some policy is feasible, and the uneducated public is against it, who wins? While I do think the danger of upheavals, violence and simple angryness of the public (or dictatorship on the other side) is something to be weighed into the equation, I'm not sure whether we should allow such matters to be decided democratically. I mean, people vote against genetically engineered food production, thereby condemning hundreds of millions of starving Africans to death which could be saved by more efficient agriculture. How many deaths are justifiable in the name of democracy? What about patients whose life could be saved by transplants, but since the country doesn't allow stem-cell research they'll die?
In the end, it's always a matter of discussion and rational arguments. While there might not always be one best solution (after all, it's possible that two actions are about equally bad / good), there definitely are some actions that enhance people's (or animals, let's not be speciesist) well-being (meet their preferences) and others that diminish it. And if whoever makes the decisions also presents a well-reasoned and peer-reviewed argumentation, what else could there be wrong with it?