Bird Flu Threat

Last night on The History Channel I saw a program called "The New Plague" which painted a doomsday scenario of the avian flu turning into a human pandemic.

It was like a post-apocalyptic scifi movie plot: hundreds of millions dead, half the earth's population infected, the world economy worse than the Great Depression, mass graves, riots, lack of basic necessities for survival, etc.

I think the scientists and public health officials interviewed went a little too far. While this doomsday scenario is not entirely impossible, it is unlikely given the quickly growing awareness of the threat and the measures being undertaken to deal with it. We may not be fully prepared right now, but we will be in the near future -- at least as much as it's possible to be prepared for such an enormous potential problem.

There is no human pandemic yet and it may never happen with the H5N1 avian flu virus. All human flu comes from bird flu virus that mutates and every year a sizeable percentage of the human population is exposed without catastrophic results. The last great pandemic was 87 years ago and, although it killed a lot of people, the world didn't turn into a dead zone. And that was before we had anti-biotics and anti-viral drugs (most flu victims actually die from pneumonia which can be treated with modern drugs.)

"The Next Plague" had a sort of disclaimer at the end. One public health official, admitting that avian flu might not become a human pandemic, said he was sorry if the warnings scared people unnecessarily, but it was better to err on the side of caution. I thought another official made a better point. He said the worst effects of a pandemic could be caused by panic, hoarding, lack of cooperation, etc.

My two cents about President Bush's plan (announced yesterday) to deal with a bird flu pandemic if it happens:

Better late than never. Sure, government and health officials all over the world should have started making preparations 8 years ago when avian flu first appeared in Asia. But that boat has sailed and all we can do now is play catch up as fast as possible.

I'm a liberal Democrat, but I'm very disappointed to see partisan politics erupting over Bush's plan. This is a public health issue, not politics. Regardless of party affiliation, all elected officials should cooperate with each other to protect Americans from the threat.

At least Bush is taking steps in the right direction. The woulda/coulda/shoulda harping is not doing the American public any good.

Well, it's official. No human pandemic of bird flu even exists yet, but panicky people have already gone insane.

Some people in Hawaii and the midwestern U.S. are stockpiling sauerkraut and kim chee, two forms of pickled cabbage. This is based on a rumor that chicken farmers in Korea cured infected fowl by feeding them kim chee. Supposedly, the high level of lactic acid in kim chee and sauerkraut kills the avian flu virus. (Funny how the Center for Disease Control in Atlanta knows nothing about this miracle cure.)

These nimrods actually believe that pickled cabbage will protect them. Think of what that says about our public education system.

It won't be long before they bring out the leeches and start voodoo chants to ward off the evil spirits embodied in avian flu. When people get spooked, the thin veneer of civilization peels off and the ignorant savage underneath is exposed.

I just read in BBC that China has confirmed its first human death from bird flu.

It can't be the first... :rolleyes:

Two Questions: 1.) Migratory chickens?

2.) If everyone ignored the media coverage would the threat of a pandemic, or any threat for that matter, immediately decrease?

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Originally Posted by subterranean

I just read in BBC that China has confirmed its first human death from bird flu. It can't be the first...

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China is definitely the loose cannon in the pandemic scenario. The PRC is run by a totalitarian government that feels above international interests. They covered up the SARS outbreak until it was almost too late to control it. The world lucked out on SARS, but if China tries to hide a human avian flu outbreak within its borders, a pandemic is practically guaranteed.

Start eating sauerkraut.

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Originally Posted by baddad

Two Questions: 1.) Migratory chickens?

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Chickens don't migrate, but infected frozen birds could be sold as food all over the world. One has already turned up in Hawaii, but it was destroyed before anyone handled the meat or ate it.

Migratory fowl (ducks, geese and other wild birds) have already spread the avian virus over half the world from Indonesia to Europe.

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Originally Posted by baddad

2.) If everyone ignored the media coverage would the threat of a pandemic, or any threat for that matter, immediately decrease?

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If everyone ignored media coverage of the Iraq war, would the war end?
I think it's wise for people to keep abreast of avian flu news because their lives may be on the line in the forseeable future. They can (1)keep pressure on government and public health officials to devise an adequate response to a pandemic (2)find out where to get anti-viral drugs like Tamiflu and a vaccine after it is developed.

You seem quite worried. Personally I can think of a lot of other pandemics (mostly moral) in the world that need immediate and unqualified attention. The chickens can by all means, wait. People starving to death to the tune of thousands everyday, despot rulers, the horror in the Sudan, mayhem in Pakistan, Indonesia, Chechnya, malaria killing tens of thousands every year, children starving, children slaving, countries ruining their environment to take advantage of economic opportunities, and not caring about a future for the following generations., .....etc...etc...etc.....

For me the bird -flu...chicken pickin' pandemic ....is not even a blip on the radar.

And how about the massive overuse of the word "Pandemic"?? Until a matter of weeks ago, most people hadn't heard the word, and probably couldn't spell it. BUT NOW EVERYTHING IS A 'PANDEMIC' !!! Propaganda perpetuated by the media. I see the scientists running toward the problem, not away from it. I see alot of people screaming that 'the sky is falling'!!! Oh, wait!! ....That would be Chicken Little...

I will go to B-mental's cave, I will not bring my television, but

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Originally Posted by baddad

You seem quite worried.

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I seem quite worried when I advised people to start eating sauerkraut? You don't have much of a sense of humor.

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Originally Posted by baddad

Personally I can think of a lot of other pandemics (mostly moral) in the world that need immediate and unqualified attention.

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There is no drug to cure moral pandemics.

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Originally Posted by baddad

For me the bird -flu...chicken pickin' pandemic ....is not even a blip on the radar.

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The last great flu pandemic in 1918 killed 100 million people worldwide. I'd say your radar is not working properly.

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Originally Posted by baddad

And how about the massive overuse of the word "Pandemic"?? Until a matter of weeks ago, most people hadn't heard the word, and probably couldn't spell it. BUT NOW EVERYTHING IS A 'PANDEMIC' !!! Propaganda perpetuated by the media. I see the scientists running toward the problem, not away from it. I see alot of people screaming that 'the sky is falling'!!! Oh, wait!! ....That would be Chicken Little...

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You can ridicule warnings as propaganda and bury your head in the sand like an ostrich if you wish. Nature has a way of weeding out those who ignore serious threats. I chose to stay informed so I'll know exactly what to do in order to survive.

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Originally Posted by baddad

I will go to B-mental's cave, I will not bring my television, but

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As long as you stay out of my cave unless you're vaccinated.

Two Indonesians Die from Bird Flu

I remember in the beginning of 1980s (even though I was very young then :p), there was such an outcry about AIDS... that it was 'the end' and by 2010 the whole world population would be affected by it etc etc... I am not saying we should ignore the bird flu threat. I think unless precautions are taken, it will be costly -both human lives-wise and financially. However, I am not sure if it is as big a risk as they make it sound like... provided that people start paying attention to the risk.

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Originally Posted by Scheherazade

I remember in the beginning of 1980s (even though I was very young then :p), there was such an outcry about AIDS... that it was 'the end' and by 2010 the whole world population would be affected by it etc etc... I am not saying we should ignore the bird flu threat. I think unless precautions are taken, it will be costly -both human lives-wise and financially. However, I am not sure if it is as big a risk as they make it sound like... provided that people start paying attention to the risk.

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The H5N1 strain of avian flu may never cause a human pandemic. Right now it doesn't spread easily from person to person, but flu viruses mutate rapidly and often become much more infectious.

Even if H5N1 doesn't cause a pandemic, a worldwide epidemic is virtually inevitable at some point in the forseeable future since that is the established history of flu disease. Two other avian flu viruses, H3N1 and H4N1, were recently discovered in chickens and either one may cause a human pandemic eventually.

I think the widespread media coverage of H5N1 is worthwhile because it has forced government and public health officials and drug companies to admit they weren't prepared to deal with a flu pandemic and to get busy devising an adequate response. This will save lives no matter when a pandemic happens. We have had 87 years to prepare since the last great pandemic, medical science has come a long way during that time, and there is absolutely no excuse for millions of people to die in the next pandemic.

I'm convinced that if people stay informed about developments and demand an adequate response plan from their local officials, they have no reason to panic. This is a solvable problem if everyone remains focused and cooperates.

ai......................

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Originally Posted by topomeas

ai......................

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I will respond to your original post before you edited it. I have done very extensive research on the avian flu virus ever since it first appeared in 1997. I read everything I could find published and I'll tell you why.

My paternal grandmother died of the flu in the 1918 pandemic. This left my father a 4-year-old orphan since his father had been killed the previous year in a mining accident. Being an orphan raised by a foster family who mistreated him affected my father's personality development in a strongly negative way.

My grandmother's death was understandable since flu vaccine and anti-biotic drugs had not been invented yet. But flu is now preventable and/or treatable and I decided my family had suffered enough from this disease. That's why I keep track of the latest developments in the avian flu threat.

Last night PBS broadcast two programs about the 1918 flu pandemic. I mention this because PBS often re-runs programs and I think these two are well worth watching.

On American Experience the episode titled "Influenza 1918" described the effects of the pandemic in the U.S. Some of the facts were eye-opening. The flu killed more Americans than all the wars of the 20th century combined. The U.S. soldiers going to World War I European battle fields on troop ships were more likely to die of flu than in combat. In the U.S. there were so many dead people all at once the survivors ran out of coffins and had to bury victims in mass graves. Business and industry ground to a halt, schools were closed, public gatherings were banned. Most insidious of all the effects, people became paranoid, lost their empathy with fellow Americans and violence erupted.

Medical science of the day was helpless to deal with the outbreak. The epidemic ended only because the virus ran out of fuel after infecting all suseptible people. The situation had been so traumatic the American public quickly developed a sort of collective amnesia about it.

The second program was a "Secrets of the Dead" episode explaining why the 1918 flu spread so fast and killed so many people. Deaths from ordinary flu are mostly confined to the very young, the elderly and people with compromised immune systems. The 1918 virus was a maverick strain that mainly killed healthy young adults in the prime of life. The victims turned blue in the face, coughed up blood and literally drowned as their lungs filled up with body fluids.

Alarmingly, the avian flu virus that has killed more than half the people it infected in Asia displays certain similarities to the 1918 virus. Most fatalities have been healthy young adults rather than children or the elderly. The good news is medical researchers may have figured out why this happened in 1918 and again now with the new strain.

The human immune system is strongest in young adulthood. By comparison children and the elderly have weak immune systems, which is why they normally die more often from infectious diseases. But super-flu strains that occur on the average of once every 30 years provoke an over-active immune response in people who have the strongest immune systems (young adults.)
Much of the damage is not caused by the virus itself, but by the over-active immune response. As in the disease of lupus, the immune system actually attacks the body.

This discovery may help scientists develop an effective vaccine against the avian flu -- one that limits the immune response while preventing the growth of the virus.

I was just thinking about the bird flu, and it dawned on me that we may all have come in contact with a little blue bird that flies nonstop and goes by the name of pensive.
We should have pensive tested to set my mind at ease. Right whose with me....let's go!