Originally Posted by
MorpheusSandman
There was a previous thread where YesNo and I debated this point quite thoroughly; if you care I could hunt for it, as I'd hate to try and repeat all the points I made. Perhaps the most salient one most simply stated is this: once an event is happened, the probability of it happening is 100%. Looking back retrospectively and calculating the odds against it doesn't really give us any relevant information. Consider if you were watching cars go by on a high way and started writing down license plates; do this for 100 cars, calculate the total number of possible combinations, and then figure out how likely it is you saw the EXACT combination you saw. OF COURSE the probability would be miniscule, but what does this tell us about what you saw? Absolutely nothing. Similarly, even though the probability of complex organisms arising "from chance alone" is incredibly small, that likewise doesn't tell us anything since we already know life is here.
That said, there are certain things that make such an event more likely than you might imagine. EG, when most look back and calculate the probability against it happening, they often forget to take into account how many trial runs such an event had. Given early earth conditions and how many biochemical interactions were happening, there were likely countless possibilities for such a thing to happen. I mean, the odds of rolling 20 dice simultaneously and them all landing on 6 is small; but if you have enough trials, it will happen eventually. What's more, modern interpretations of quantum mechanics, like MW, make such things not only possible, but inevitable, since every possible outcome happens in some world; we would just happen to find ourselves in the world(s) where life (and us) happened.