Originally Posted by
MorpheusSandman
What you're asking is more about epistemology (philosophical study of knowledge) than anything. Again, I'm more or less in agreement with Yudkowsky's views on this subject, Bayes' Theory applied on a more intuitive level. When you're relying on experts, one can put one's level of confidence in any proposition in alignment with the ratio of opinions on the matter. Eg, if 60% of experts believe in MWI, then put your confidence level at 60% that MWI is true. One doesn't have to split all beliefs into binary/boolean true/false, 0/1. Bayes itself says that there can be levels, and it's more about being "less wrong" than guessing the right answer. If I want to be less wrong then I'm going to favor what the leading experts tend to favor. Of course it can't guarantee truth, but the need for such certainty is in itself a cognitive trap. However, I do find what YesNo's doing, essentially "investigating" QM and trying to make it fit his preconceived beliefs, very counter-productive, if not dishonest. I myself have admitted I don't know enough to confidently answer many of his questions, so I've simply tried to point him (like Cioran) to those that do (or seem to).
As far as belief branching off from knowledge, this happens most strongly when beliefs stop being thought of as maps and start being confused for the territory itself. If one thinks of beliefs as a map then, like with any map, there is a way to compare it with reality. If I believe there's a mountain in Colorado, I should be able to go to Colorado and see a mountain, so my belief, my map, is confirmed by seeing the mountain. People's beliefs tend to get out of whack with reality when they stop making this map/territory connection, when beliefs become disconnected from verifiable, predictable sense experience. A lot has been said against positivism and verificationism in 20th century philosophy, and Popper's notion of falsifiability could be said to be an even better way to think of it than either, but I tend to find that when you get away from either then that's where quackery and pseudo-science flourishes.