Memories of the 28th Century

These days many people are suffering under the mistaken belief that they and their fellow humans are causing significant change to the Earth's climate. This belief is contrary to what the data and logic tell us. The evidence of historical data shows that there have been similar fluctuations in climate throughout history and before history. The Earth has experience rises and drops in temperature. The fluctuations have a variety of causes, but the principal cause is the amount of energy from the Sun that reaches Earth without being reflected away.

It may seem that the amount of solar heating would be constant, but it isn't for several reasons. Those reasons include the size and shape of the Earth's orbit and the angle of axial tilt.

Over time the Earth has moved slightly away from the Sun, and the shape of the Earth’s orbit changes constantly. The eccentricity of the orbit varies enough to make a difference in how much sunlight will reach at some points, and combining that with axial tilt the amount of light that will be absorbed, rather than reflected away, is determined, because some parts of the Earth are less reflective than other parts. Ice, snow, and water are more reflective than most rocks and soil, so they reflect the solar energy back into space, but some of that reflected energy is absorbed by Greenhouse gases and the gas warms and eventually re-emits the energy. Gases are greenhouse gases if they can absorb and emit within certain ranges, and the range is determined by whether the gas is a molecular dipole. That means that the molecule has to have one side that has a positive charge and another side that has a negative charge. The molecules that fit that condition are asymmetrical, such as water and methane, while symmetrical molecules such as Oxygen do not emit in the infra-red range to any significant degree. Carbon dioxide is symmetrical, so it does not emit significant amounts of infra-red radiation, but the two oxygen atoms can vibrate and emit a little infra-red about 1% as much as water vapor.

It has been calculated that the Earth would have an average temperature of about 0 degrees, if there were no greenhouse warming. The Earth's average temperature is about 57 degrees. The difference between those temperatures is the result of greenhouse gases with water vapor providing about 90% of the increase. Methane, carbon dioxide and other minor gases provide the remainder.

There is debate about the relative effects of different gases, but carbon dioxide does not have the capacity to add much, because it is a weak greenhouse gas, but it is claimed that remains in the atmosphere for extended periods of time. So carbon dioxide might provide 5% of the heat rise above the theoretical base level.

The other oddity about carbon dioxide is that nearly all of it is put into the atmosphere by natural events, such as the decomposition of organic matter and the exhalations of animals. It appears that the amount being exhaled by animals has not changed with the development of agriculture, etc. because the newer sources simply replaced older sources that are providing less. That appears to also be true of carbon dioxide created by combustion; it simply replaces CO2 from natural sources that have decreased as civilization increased. One variable in the amount of CO2 going into the atmosphere is whether things decompose immediately or are frozen for a number of years before they decompose. For example, during the Little Ice Age glaciers expanded for a few centuries, and much organic matter was frozen for an extended period, but eventually the glaciers receded, and the organic matter warmed enough to decompose and release CO2 into the atmosphere. That CO2 made up most of the increase in CO2 that has been seen in recent decades, and it appears that there will be extra CO2 being added for some time to come, certainly until the glaciers stop receding and probably for a few years after that. The muskegs of Northern Canada are particularly vulnerable to this since the permafrost has started to melt.

If you are still concerned with the amount of CO2, then you might consider eliminate your "carbon footprint" by burying it.