1984- the end?

[Taliesin]

I have been wondering how and when could the 1984 regime end.
I mean, everything will end someday, even if it means that the sun will explode after 4 billion years.
My possible answers would be:
*Prole uprise - I don't think that it is probable. They had the power, but they did not know that they had it.
*Crumbling at the top - also improbable. If one of the inner party would decide that the regime should end, he/she would be killed instantly by the others.
*Exhaustion of natural resources ;an ecological ending - would mean the end of human race, personally I think that it's the most probable
*Mayor freak accident, like a great mistake made at the top, catastrophies, one of the big three countries would be conquered or smth like that - improbable. The system is too strong to be destroyed by freak accidents
*The sun explodes after 4 million years ;)

What do you think?

Oh, and excuse my grammatical errors; english is not my first language

[crisaor]

How about a militar defeat at the hands of another (and real) dictatorship/empire?

[Stanislaw]

The three wourld powers seemed to work together thought, after all having a common enemy is a good way for dictators to steer the peoples discontent away from the gov., it seemed to me that the three major govs, were either secretly one or helped eachother to hold control over their own populace.

[crisaor]

it seemed to me that the three major govs, were either secretly one or helped eachother to hold control over their own populace.
You think so? I'm not so sure about that. Truth is, Winston recalls throughout the novel that the government of Oceania had gone to war against both Eurasia and Eastasia in the past, but after some time they claimed to be allies. But this state of things isn't explained by Orwell, but by Winston, and he only repeats the things the party has said to him in the past years. What if the true nature of the world is not that which Big Brother claimed? It seems pretty posible to me that the actual order of things was very different than the one Big Brother wanted people to accept. Of course, giving a biased view of the world to justify the current situation inside a country is one of the trademarks of a dictatorship or any totalitarian regime (actually, come to think about it, it's not that uncommon in democracies).

[simon]

"*Exhaustion of natural resources ;an ecological ending - would mean the end of human race, personally I think that it's the most probable"

I agree with you on that Taliesin, I think that eventually they would just deplete the environemnt until they could not sustain the lify style and the regime to the potential they wanted. Eventually becusae of the depleting resources their cover would be blown and the empire would crumble. And proabably the other two governments would take over and there would be a new form of government.

[Ingenieur]

I think one of the key principles of the party, and the parties governing Eurasia and East Asia was equilibrium. Ideally, or as O'Brian put it, the party would remain static. If an equilibrium had, or could, be reached then in all likelyhood it is conceivable that the party could remain in power indefinitely. Some natural resources are renewable, e.g.: drinking water and lumber. Others are not, such as fossil fuels and certain metals. Taking a darker perspective, one could imagine the party would find a way to circumvent an eventual depletion of fossil fuels. Remember that science, although dead in Engsoc, is still alive if it does the will of the party. Items such as telescreens, weapons, listening devices are all examples of technology used to control people. If and when fossil fuels were to run out, one would think that the party "scientists" would devise a way to make their machines run on alternative fuels.

As with most of my favorite books, the ending is not really an ending at all, leaving a great deal to be thought over and re-read. I've read the book five times now and each time I seem to discover something I hadn't picked up on before.

My opinion? I'd have to say that the party would most likely be "forever". The setting of the book, vis-a-vis the rise of EngSoc, illustrates an increasing amount of power the party has upon its citizens. The increased prevalance of newspeak, the 11th edition of the dictionary, the abolition of the orgasm: all of these are tools in the process of implementation. If we, the readers, are to agree with the fact that these will be implemented it is conceivable that the party would have true thought-control over all its inhabitants. At that point, there can be no resistance, no Winstons.

Then again, there are the proles, the largest slice of the pie. In another thread someone noted that they most likely would never revolt, since they wouldn't know any better then the way things are.

Orwell painted a very grim picture indeed...

[Liina]

I think that the uprising of proles would be the most probable event to end the totalitarian regime. The history has shown that working class has the necessary power to defeat rulers. They had the power and they didn`t know that they had it, I agree, but masses have never known it. Of course, it is fiction but according to reality proles would have defeated the Party if the story had gone on and not the resistance. I personally think there was no resistance, stories of it were spread to capture people who had doubts about the Party and Winston swallowed the bate. In reality proles would have bad life and they would start rebelling with the government and win it because the strongest power is in masses who act according to their needs.

[crisaor]

I disagree. Hope may lie with the proles (and I think it does), but that's the least probable outcome, and Orwell (through Winston) expresses that feeling in the book in my opinion. Once a totalitarian regime is established, it'll be very difficult to eradicate, and even more so by internal happenings. The thing with the proles, as Orwell puts it, is this: "Until they become conscious they will never rebel, and until after they have rebelled they cannot become conscious." Unless there's a way around this, I don't see how an uprising could exist. Besides, the ones that caused the most trouble to Big Brother weren't the proles, but the members of the party who had second thoughts. And that's why they're the ones being monitored, because they could pose a potential threat. The proles weren't at all concerned with the state of things, and even if they were, they were the most likely to submit to the party's propaganda. The proles might have the power to depose the regime, but without some sort of direction they would get nowhere.

[imthefoolonthehill]

i'm not going to bother with reading all of your answers, so if this has been said already, sorry.

Obviously, the party will eventually turn against itself, and death within the party due to stagnation is the highest probablitity... that or volcanic eruptions... take your pick. :-D

[Ingenieur]

Well put, Crisaor. But if there is hope, it lie in the proles. I guess one could hypothesize that, eventually, a Che Guevara would rise up within the proles. A voice of reason, a single consciousness that could be the catalyst to a revolution. However based on the text of the novel alone, the reader is left with an overwhelming sense that The Party is in fact forever. Barring a cataclysmic natural disaster, I still feel that the chances of a proletariat uprising or of an outer-party conspiracy are slim to none.

[crisaor]

i'm not going to bother with reading all of your answers, so if this has been said already, sorry.
Then why do you bother to be here?

[Stanislaw]

Theoretically "hope" lay with the proles, however I believe that they were not heavily affected by the main party. They went about their daily buisness as the would under any leader, Winston even said that the party rules were not strictly enforced in the proles, it was mainly inforced in the party memebers and with those who held authoritative positions. I believe that for the main part they were unaware of what the party was doing to "traitors", The situation almost reminds me of Nazi Germany.

[crisaor]

The situation almost reminds me of Nazi Germany.
Despite their differences, this kind of regimes seem to be very alike, as in a common nightmare.

[Stanislaw]

There are only so many ways to rule with fear, the name may change but the machine is still the same.

[subterranean]

Indeed Stan.

i find several local authors with similiar descritption of how the main actors changes their beliefs coz of tortures, i wonder whether they were inspired by these book. But somehow i belief that the second president of my country read this book and used it as guidance..beside "the prince" of course, and somehow i experience the meaning of double-thinking or double-think, though less extreme. i remembered the presindent's annual reports said that agricultural ministry had increased farmer's revenue and we were forced to believed that each year. But many years later when the regime had fell, it was so obvious than farmers couldnt even buy fertilizer for their crops.

[Theonearmedman]

It seems to me that a combination of two thing things would eventually destroy the regime of Big Brother.
1. Economic Failure
2. Power Stuggle at the top

1.The Idea of a small committee deciding the factors of production for the millions, perhaps even billions, of people that lived in Oceania and being successfull is absurd eventually there will be shortages of economic supplies everywhere creating "social friction" amongst the people of Oceania. Now yes the party can lie and continually tell people that they are producing more and more consumer products but they can not make shoes mystically appear on peoples feet. This will eventually cause the people of Oceania to look beyond the party for larger and larger amount amount of consumer products. Leading to a strong merchant/client relationship and small pockets of resistance.

2. Officialy Big Brother rules the party and big brother never dies. but we all die so just like any organization on the planet there is always somone at the top somone making decisions. Chances are eventually certain members of the inner party would become enraptured in a power struggle in which they would have to enlist members of lower society to help them even if it meant going against certain pricipals of ingsoc.

Conclusion:
A power stuggle coupled with poor economic health would lead to Oceania basically breaking up into smaller regional; states, republics, and kingdoms much the same way that the Roman empire broke up.

[Stanislaw]

Maybe but only if the party tried to change any doctrine, the USSR survived even thought there were opposing factions trying to rule, the only time it collapsed was when futur leaders try to undo what the previouse leader had done.

[Theonearmedman]

It is human nature to destroy the work of people we don't respect.

[WhiteRabbit]

I think The Party could only lose control by human error - some drastic lie would have to be exposed and go noticed by too many people to wipe out in one go. The arrests seem to flow building by building, and round office by office, not on a massively grand scale.

The proles seem to love the rigged lottery, an error in the lottery results could result in mass rioting by the proles conceivably.

If Big Brother's existence became subject to doubt, that would certainly do it, only a few at the top of The Party are aware that Big Brother is a symbol and nothing more.

The wars are geared in such a way that they never end - the wars provide each of the protagonists with prisoners for use as slave labor so it's in nobody's interest they ever end. Orwell held the political belief that the vast majority of the British proletariat were located in India, Africa and the West Indies, working for colonialism, the wars for control between the three powers also alude to that belief of Orwell's (he was a colonial policeman before he rejected the whole concept).

Chances are the balance of power at the top of The Party is just as delicate as between the three powers.

[Stanislaw]

I beleive that all of the powers actually were rulled by one leader, it was just too convienaint a situation.

[nns]

*Crumbling at the top - also improbable. If one of the inner party would decide that the regime should end, he/she would be killed instantly by the others.


This reminds me about what in my view is one of the biggest misteries of the 20th century: Gorbacev (my spelling of his name is the Italian one).
How is it possilble that a guy with his ideas not only did not end up in Siberia but actually made it to the top of the Communist Party in the Soviet Union, it is something that goes beyond my immagination.
Does anybody know the answer?

[DELLIS518]

Yes history tells us that brutal regimes and colonial powers have generally been overthrown by the proles, but in 1984 it seems that the necessary social conditions are lacking. Revolutions occur when basic human needs are not being met, when people are so desperate they will do anything to change their state of being. Although Orwell did not communicate the exact living conditions of the proles, it seems that economic, political and social oppression do not exist. If the party continues to give the proles just enough to get by then Big Brother is indeed "forever". Also any revolution, or recognition of class consciousness, has been founded on the recognition of how things once were for their people. If Big Brother successfully destroys history then the Proles will have no sense of a "right" to a better life. Any thoughts?

[kaka]

1. Obviously, one must never confuse a work of fiction with reality, but within the framework of the novel, what "independent" information does the reader have about Eurasia and Eastasia? The answer is absolutely none at all.

2. How about loss of nerve at the very, very top? I'm thinking of some kind of irrational panic and/or loss of will.

3. How and why did the East European (and Soviet) régimes collapse? That might provide some clues. However, please remember that Soviet Bloc was in competition with the West. It's not clear that Oceania is in reall competition with any other power.

Having said all this, the outlook is certainly very bleak.

[starrwriter]

I can think of one real country where in the last 30 years:

*The standard of living of the average worker has gone steadily downhill and now ranks 7th in the world instead of 1st.
*There are more poor and homeless people than ever since the Great Depression.
*Per capita, more citizens are in prison than in the totalitarian society of Communist China -- the majority for victimless crimes.
*Good jobs are being outsourced to other countries while low-paying service jobs are the mainstay at home.
*The weath of the nation is being funneled into the hands of a very small ruling class at the expense of everyone else.
*In this supposedly democratic country the top leader took office depite losing the popular vote.

Yes, it's the United States. And I don't see any revolution breaking out here. People tolerate bad governments because they are weak, disorganized and brainwashed.

[ozebaseball]

Orwell publiched the essay about Newspeak at the end, as an epilogue (not a prologue) for a reason. There are two key features about this essay that are of the utmost importance when thinking about the end of the regime. It is written by an academic and more importantly, is written refering to Newspeak in the past tense. This is critical because it shows the 'sameness' of the party has dissapated with the emergence of an academic elite, a hierachal society based on something more than party membership. Also reference to Newspeak in the past tense insinuates that it is no longer used and hints at the fall of Big Brothers regime. I believe this could only have happened at the hands of the proles and goes some way to dismissing the apocalyptic ending of the regime (ecological, freak accident, supernova of the sun, etc.)

[Teacher]

GREG.....If they don't use there power wisely and the proles don't find out how to band together. and if the big brother is useing the power to the good of there power then some day it will fall and will parish :rage::flare::mad::smash::argue: