What I understand as negative social mood is the increasing violence trend. For example: The is no direct connection between the more than 90 executions in Brazilian prisons last week and what happened in Fort Lauredale. But I donīt think that both acts of violence would have happened 20 or maybe even ten year ago.
"I seemed to have sensed also from an early age that some of my experiences as a reader would change me more as a person than would many an event in the world where I sat and read. "
Gerald Murnane, Tamarisk Row
Violence would be an effect of social mood whether done by the government or by some other group. Even preferring to watch violence in movies would be the effect of a negative mood.
Prechter calls those effects "sociometers" if one can get enough data to measure those changes. The best sociometer is a market chart because it picks up social mood faster as it affects the sector represented by that market. Not all markets are alike. He then uses wave counts discovered by Elliott in the early twentieth century to predict changes in the market. Although right now in the US markets are high. The social mood starts shifting in the third wave and then hits the top in the fifth wave. It gets worse as the markets move lower, but then even it changes eventually.
However none of this determines how individuals will respond.
Regarding whether there is a world banking conspiracy, I can see how there could be one, but those bankers are trying to keep the economies going for everyone, both rich and poor, by lowering interest rates or providing liquidity for assets. One could interpret that as keeping the rich rich, but I don't think that is their conscious motive at the moment. They are just making a mistake that I would probably make as well were I one of them. When I start saying to myself that their motive was just to make the rich rich, then I would have also succumbed to the conspiracy theory. But by then it might actually be a correct theory.
Last edited by YesNo; 01-09-2017 at 07:45 AM.
I was thinking more about Prechter's interpretation of Elliott Waves and it occurred to me that it has a lot in common with Niles Eldredge's punctuated equilibria. Both are theories of evolution. Both are opposed to views that evolutionary change is random. Prechter's socionomics is opposed to the "efficient market hypothesis" and "random walks". Eldredge's Darwinian theory seems to be opposed to neo-Darwinism with evolution coming from random changes to genes. Prechter needs "social mood" to drive his non-random social evolution. Eldredge needs the existence of "species" to drive change during periods when the equilibrium is punctuated.
Of course I might not understand either of these theories correctly.
I get a very general idea of what you mean but I would have to get more into it as I donīt know any of this authors. I suppose they are economic analysts.
"I seemed to have sensed also from an early age that some of my experiences as a reader would change me more as a person than would many an event in the world where I sat and read. "
Gerald Murnane, Tamarisk Row
Prechter is or was a market trader who found out about R N Elliott's almost forgotten theory in the 1970's. Since then he carried it into a sociological theory called "socionomics". It is the socionomics that I find more interesting. He did found a company called Elliott Wave International that provides market forecasts based on the theory.
Eldredge is a paleontologist who with Gould came up with punctuated equilibria as a way to explain the evolution of species.
I wonder to what extent physics is evolutionary? Given a physical law one should be able to go in both directions, the past and the future, but one shouldn't be able to tell the difference.
As far as predicting the future goes, people with psi abilities to see the future do this as well. Although they are not considered scientific because they do not use experimental data (market charts or fossil stratification or measurements of gravity), they do use intuition to see patterns and so do these scientists. If psi works then there must be something to see much like "social mood" or "species" or "gravity". Economists in general don't rely on something called "social mood". They would say social mood is caused by market behavior. Prechter flips that on its head claiming that social mood changes come first. They cause changes in market behavior.
To put this into the context of this thread, social mood causes an increased belief in banking conspiracies or, to avoid any deterministic suggestion with the word "cause", social mood makes it more likely that someone would be willing to see a banking conspiracy occurring.
Last edited by YesNo; 01-10-2017 at 07:33 AM.
I can give you only a very limited answer based on intuition and not on specialized books. Banks need to make profit and when the economy of the countries doesnīt work they canīt make so much profit any more. What happens then is not so clear to me. Sometimes they break or they are absorbed by bigger banks.
As to the psi people I know very little about them. Maybe you are interested in them because you yourself had at least one vision.
"I seemed to have sensed also from an early age that some of my experiences as a reader would change me more as a person than would many an event in the world where I sat and read. "
Gerald Murnane, Tamarisk Row
Psi does interest me because of the experience I had, although I don't seem to be able to predict the future very well.
Deflation can get a start from four sources: (1) Potential debtors no longer want to borrow money, (2) Debtors cannot repay the interest and principal on their debts and go bankrupt, (3) Creditors no longer want to loan money fearing bankruptcy and (4) Creditors experience too much loss through bankruptcies. These things don't affect everyone in the same way at the same time. People who are feeling a problem with debt and credit may start asking about a banking conspiracy.
The underlying question is whether there exists something called "social mood" that encourages people to not want debt or not want to lend? That would be a negative or bearish social mood. Or is the negative social mood the effect of randomness in the market? That is a major difference in perspective although I may not be explaining it clearly enough. It is almost the same question as asking: Did a real muse help me write that poem or did some random neurons firing in my brain write that poem?
Last edited by YesNo; 01-10-2017 at 11:30 PM.
I am still not so sure when you are joking, when not. I suppose psi experiences and predicting the future are different things.
We usually have inflation here. The only thing I know about it is that prices go up and people can buy less with the same amount of money.
Last edited by Danik 2016; 01-11-2017 at 10:02 PM.
"I seemed to have sensed also from an early age that some of my experiences as a reader would change me more as a person than would many an event in the world where I sat and read. "
Gerald Murnane, Tamarisk Row
Usually I'm not joking, but I am not always right and I change my mind. I figure I might as well take a light-hearted approach to whatever interests me since I don't know the answers to the questions.
Predicting the future is a kind of psi ability, but then scientists want to be able to predict the future as well. They normally do not consider what they do to be a psi ability, but the desire to know what the future will be could be viewed as a sort of psi potential. A computer couldn't care what the future is. I agree that psi includes more than predicting the future.
I don't understand how inflation starts or what social mood drives it, but I would like to understand that better. Recently the US Dollar has been strong although it is getting weaker. I imagine that would make other currencies weaker. I see inflation as a currency that cannot hold value for very long. This would be good for debtors and bad for creditors and so the creditors compensate by wanting higher interest rates. In a deflation the creditors do not want to loan money at all because they fear they will lose their principal through defaults and bankruptcies. Nor do people want to borrow because they do not trust they can make the payments.
Last edited by YesNo; 01-12-2017 at 12:27 AM.
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