I'm happy to accept that correction, DieterM, though I doubt it affects my conclusion that the European Central Bank in Frankfurt is far removed from the economies of the countries which the ECB controls. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sweden_and_the_euro
I'm no expert in things monetary (take a look at my bank account and you'll see how true that is, alas!, lol) and accept your pov without further discussion simply because I can't come up with any valid counter-argument. Anyway, I think it should be up to each country whether to join the euro or not, so I can only agree with the Swedish policy.
"Im Arm der Liebe schliefen wir selig ein…" ("Liebesode" - Otto Erich Hartleben)
New poetry collection available (Kindle and paperback)
The BBC has lost much of its reputation for objectivity over the years but this production is quite brilliant in summing up the pre and post Brexit situation in Europe. The conclusion by the reporter that leaving the EU might be unnecessary due to its collapse won't please the remainers, but the fade out as she walks off to the strains of Mozart's requiem is a masterstroke of reportage.
https://youtu.be/ZMQXXCiEQnA
"L'art de la statistique est de tirer des conclusions erronèes a partir de chiffres exacts." Napoléon Bonaparte.
"Je crois que beaucoup de gens sont dans cet état d’esprit: au fond, ils ne sentent pas concernés par l’Histoire. Mais pourtant, de temps à autre, l’Histoire pose sa main sur eux." Michel Houellebecq.
When the reporter was looking for floor 5.5 in Brussels (at about 29:00 in the video), it reminded me of trying to find Harry Potter's train platform to Hogwarts.
I don't understand the reasoning behind floor 5.5 but within the context of the programme it's irrelevant.
What's central to the documentary is Beatrix von Storch's assertion that if the people want the EU to crumble, then it should crumble.
German logic at its finest.
"L'art de la statistique est de tirer des conclusions erronèes a partir de chiffres exacts." Napoléon Bonaparte.
"Je crois que beaucoup de gens sont dans cet état d’esprit: au fond, ils ne sentent pas concernés par l’Histoire. Mais pourtant, de temps à autre, l’Histoire pose sa main sur eux." Michel Houellebecq.
I expect the EU to end before the British finish the process of exiting just as the documentary suggested. I don't know enough about politics to know what I am talking about, but I will make a prediction anyway: By January 1, 2018, there will no longer be an EU.
How long do you think it will last?
Last edited by YesNo; 02-15-2017 at 03:26 PM.
I'm not talking about what you have been saying in this topic, but for what i see in american tv shows i get the idea that most americans have no clue why the "Out" won in the Brexit referendum.
The "Out" won, first of all, because the british were never very enthusiastic about the European project. Never. They joined the european communities very late, much later than the foundation. Not only because France didn't want them to get in the community, but because the british themselves were relutant about the european political and economical bonds. So, there was always a general misstrust from the british torwards the EU.
And with the financial crisis of 2008, and the way european institutions tried to impose a general policy to the countries that weren't following financial and budget rules, a moment in which the german power within the EU was very clear, the feeling that the EU was part of a organization in which other european power was the leading country who pulled the strings made the anti-EU feeling get even bigger.
On top of all that, the average citizen of Great Britain got tired of the mass imigration that lead thousands and thousands of people every year to the country, even with the economical crisis. People from Eastern Europe, Middle East and some african countries were getting in Great Britain every year by the thousands, in a time of lack of employment, economical crisis, so the general feeling was "How can we still allow thousands of people to get in the country if there's no jobs, there's no money and we are in a crisis?". And there's also the fact that there was some important cultural and social shocks between the british and some imigrant communities that started to appear in their cities because of the cultural differences, specially with muslims.
For last: globalization effects. Thousands of people lost their jobs because of factories and companies that left the UK to transfer their production units to countries like Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Thailand and China. Thousands lost their jobs, and the EU became a symbol of that globalization policy. And the british showed their unhapiness threw the vote in Brexit.
Traditional euro-scepticism, Germany influence in the EU, clashes between the UK and the EU policies, the effects of globalization and social unhapiness and cultural shocks are the main reasons why the "Out" got more votes.
Don't count on it. There are countries that need the EU too much for them to abdicate it. And it serves the interests of the two super-powers of Europe, Germany and France. Besides, without the EU, Spain and Italy with be broke by now.Originally Posted by YesNo
If Marine Le Pen wins the election, she will probably try to make France leave the EU. But, for now, Le Pen winning the election is very, very unlikely. In the second round of voting, the centre-right and the centre-left parties will probably join forces to elect either Macron or Fillon.
A reasoned summation of the current situation; especially as to why the Brits voted to leave.
There are, however, some facets which should be considered.
Whilst it's true that some smaller EU members need the Euro (which is essentially a German construct ) to bolster their own economies, they are reduced to supplicants
rather than equal partners in the union: a one-sided situation that fuels resentment.
This dissatisfaction has been seen in Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal and France: hence the rise of various anti-EU parties across Europe
France, far from being a European super power, has a broken economy that has played into the hands of the National Front who have made significant inroads into the traditional socialist vote. Fillon now looks like a busted flush while Macron is the new kid on the block, so nothing should ruled out regarding Le Pen.
Italy has a major banking crisis on it's hands and without EU bailouts would already be bankrupt.
This year's elections in Germany may see Merkel ejected and the AfD gain seats in the Bundestag although the traditional socialist/ conservative coalition should hold.
One thing is certain, the Germans will fight tooth and nail to keep the EU going as they are by far and away the main beneficiaries.
"L'art de la statistique est de tirer des conclusions erronèes a partir de chiffres exacts." Napoléon Bonaparte.
"Je crois que beaucoup de gens sont dans cet état d’esprit: au fond, ils ne sentent pas concernés par l’Histoire. Mais pourtant, de temps à autre, l’Histoire pose sa main sur eux." Michel Houellebecq.
I don't think the EU will fail if Wilders wins in the Netherlands, Le Pen wins in France and Merkel is not reelected in Germany. Liquidity in the credit, stock and commodity markets will have to dry up first. Then it won't matter who wins those elections. Whoever wins will be in deep trouble. I don't think I am prepared for that to happen. So I'm worried.
France is, without any doubt, an european super power. Not only it's one of the founding countries of the European Communities and one of the most influential countries of/in the continent, but it's also the second biggest economy of the EU, the 6th most powerful economy in the world, a permanent member of the Security Council of the UN and nowadays the second most powerful army of the Western Europe. An army that's part of relevant international interventions, such as in Lybia, Central African Republic and Sudan. No relevant decision is taken in european politics without the french "ok", that you can be sure. Juncker said it very clearly some months ago: when asked why France wasn't penalized for not following financial rules like every other country is penalized, Juncker answered: "Because it's France".
Concerning to the general feeling about the EU, yes, unhappiness has grown in several countries. But the perception that the connection with the EU is to relevant to abandone the organization make's that unhappiness not be as relevant in many countries as it is in France and the UK. Countries like Portugal and Spain have still a political system in which the traditional parties gatter the majority of the vote, and the extremist and anti-Europe parties have a minor relevance. In Portugal, anti-Europe parties make about 20% of the Parliament seats combined. In Spain, the left-extremist party PODEMOS had a bad result in the national elections, compared to what everyone expected.
Why does the extremists have worst, much worst results in countries like Spain, Portugal and Italy than they have in France? Simple as this: while the french believe they are able to live without the EU, in Spain and Italy people believe that they have no conditions to live without the economical support and the commercial relationships created by the EU. The dependence of those smaller and weaker economies make their people be afraid of the possibility of leaving the EU, so the extremist parties don't have as many votes as they have in France and (apparently) will have in Germany.
And let's not forget that Spain and Portugal do not face the same issues that France faces concerning to immigration and clash of cultures. There's not a big muslim community being created in Lisbon or in Madrid, not like we see in Paris or Marseille, for example. There's not tens of thousands trying to get in Portugal or Ireland every year, like we see happening in France or the United Kingdom. There for, the social tensions are just not there in that aspect in Portugal, Spain or Ireland.
Last edited by Lendo; 02-17-2017 at 01:59 PM.
Le Pen wins in 3... 2... 1...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ek1ENuEyWHE
So with the courage of a clown, or a cur, or a kite jerkin tight at it's tether
If Le Pen wins, the traditional parties can only blame themselves. The European Union can only blame itself. Politicians like Hollande, Valls and others can only blame themselves.
They were the one's who created an unsustainable social and economical situation in France, with massive immigration in a country that has no conditions to integrate so many people, specially when most of them had no education degree what so ever, so they weren't fit to the job market at all. In a period in which the economical situation was very bad, the political crisis was deeper than ever and the social clashes reached levels never seen before. And let's not forget, that on top of all that, France was a target of two significant terrorist attacks on the last years, in Paris and in Nice.
So, what did the Socialist Party expected? What did Juncker and Schulz expected? What did Merkel, Cameron or Costa expected? They didn't give any answers to the clear problem of immigration, uncontrolled and prejudicial immigration. They didn't even wanted to face the issue. So, someone showed up and gave an answer. The problem of the moderates being afraid of adressing some sensitive problems, is the fact that they open the door for an extremist to give an answer. Threw out History, the ones who were considered "extremists" got to power and gained power when all others weren't able or weren't interested in solving a problem that the people wanted fixed.
Nowadays, there's this mainstream belief that everyone who adresses issues about immigration and different cultures is automatically a fascist and xenophobic. So, politicians try to avoid those issues, afraid of being considered that, afraid of being perceived as racist. Even when it's very, very clear that there's an issue to solve, there's a problem to be considered, there's a problem that recquires a solution. The ties that the left put around border, immigration and social issues didn't allow some moderate parties to figure out a reasonable solution for what was happening in Europe. Guess what? Now you have a solution. And most french people are accepting it, apparently. But here's the detail... the solution comes from Marine Le Pen. Congratulations to Hollande.
I like Marine Le Pen. I like Jean-Marie Le Pen. I like Marion Marechal Le Pen. If the Front National wins the election I'll be on cloud nine.
So with the courage of a clown, or a cur, or a kite jerkin tight at it's tether
l haven't been to France for years because of the mess that the Socialists have made of it , but if Le Pen wins, I intend to be be on the first train to Paris.
"L'art de la statistique est de tirer des conclusions erronèes a partir de chiffres exacts." Napoléon Bonaparte.
"Je crois que beaucoup de gens sont dans cet état d’esprit: au fond, ils ne sentent pas concernés par l’Histoire. Mais pourtant, de temps à autre, l’Histoire pose sa main sur eux." Michel Houellebecq.
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