1918 flu pandemic vs. the two World Wars

[Heloise Wild]

Every year, we remember the war veterans; there are memorials, there is war literature. And it is admirable that we remember, that we have learned from this experience and are trying to make the planet more humane. However, there are things we forget, things just as devastating, and I wonder, Why?

I just came upon this statistics...
The number of victims (in case of the wars, including civilians)
World War I: 35 million
World War II: 60 million
1918 flu pandemic: up to 100 million and 500 million (1/4 of world population) infected

That is to say, it is estimated that the epidemic claimed as many victims as the two wars combined... Why don't we have a date to honour those people, then? You could say that dying from an illness isn't heroic, that their death was meaningless. But to me, to tell the truth, there is not much difference between a war and an illness meaning-wise...

[stlukesguild]

The usual estimate is that the deaths for the 1918 Flu Pandemic ("Spanish Influenza") falls between 50-100 million deaths with the number likely leaning toward the lower end of the spectrum. This amounts to approximately 3% of the world population of the time. The losses are commonly included within the number of losses as a result of World War I bringing the total for that war to approximately 65-million. World War II casualties range from an estimated 40-72-million with the number likely leaning toward the higher end of this spectrum, and WWI deaths excluding those caused by the flue number approx. 15-million.

The losses from the Spanish Influenza are commonly included in the casualties from WWI not because the flu began in the trenches, but rather because the conditions of the war: the vast transportation of troops, the large concentration of troops in confined spaces, the weakened immune systems of soldiers as the result of the war, and the lack of communication about the pandemic due to press blackouts... likely led to the rapid spread of the disease. The disease also seems to have been far more deadly to young adults than it was to older adults and children. Combined with the massing of young adults in the trenches in Europe made for something akin to the "perfect storm".

The two greatest human-inflicted disasters in history are estimated to have been the An Lushan Rebellion in China (December 16, 755 to CE February 17, 763) which amounted for an estimated 36-million deaths, and the Mongol Conquests (1207-1472) which resulted in an estimate of 30-60 million deaths. In both of these instances the losses would account for more the 15% of the entire earth's population at the time. This compares to 1.7-3.1% for all the losses of WWII.

The greatest losses due to "natural causes" include the Bubonic Plague or "Black Death" which accounted for approximately 100-million deaths from 1300-1720. Reaching it's peak in Europe c. 1350 it claimed as high as 60% of the European population. The Plagues of Justinian (540–590), an earlier outbreak of Bubonic Plague claimed between 40-100 million at that time (an astronomical number considering the world population).

In the 20th century alone, smallpox has accounted for as many as 300-million deaths, Measles as many as 200-million, Malaria as high as 250-million, and Tuberculosis as much as 100-million. Even now as many as 250,000 die annually from seasonal influenza (the flu).

Kind of paints a bleak picture of the fragile state of human existence.

[Darcy88]

The usual estimate is that the deaths for the 1918 Flu Pandemic ("Spanish Influenza") falls between 50-100 million deaths with the number likely leaning toward the lower end of the spectrum. This amounts to approximately 3% of the world population of the time. The losses are commonly included within the number of losses as a result of World War I bringing the total for that war to approximately 65-million. World War II casualties range from an estimated 40-72-million with the number likely leaning toward the higher end of this spectrum, and WWI deaths excluding those caused by the flue number approx. 15-million.

The losses from the Spanish Influenza are commonly included in the casualties from WWI not because the flu began in the trenches, but rather because the conditions of the war: the vast transportation of troops, the large concentration of troops in confined spaces, the weakened immune systems of soldiers as the result of the war, and the lack of communication about the pandemic due to press blackouts... likely led to the rapid spread of the disease. The disease also seems to have been far more deadly to young adults than it was to older adults and children. Combined with the massing of young adults in the trenches in Europe made for something akin to the "perfect storm".

The two greatest human-inflicted disasters in history are estimated to have been the An Lushan Rebellion in China (December 16, 755 to CE February 17, 763) which amounted for an estimated 36-million deaths, and the Mongol Conquests (1207-1472) which resulted in an estimate of 30-60 million deaths. In both of these instances the losses would account for more the 15% of the entire earth's population at the time. This compares to 1.7-3.1% for all the losses of WWII.

The greatest losses due to "natural causes" include the Bubonic Plague or "Black Death" which accounted for approximately 100-million deaths from 1300-1720. Reaching it's peak in Europe c. 1350 it claimed as high as 60% of the European population. The Plagues of Justinian (540–590), an earlier outbreak of Bubonic Plague claimed between 40-100 million at that time (an astronomical number considering the world population).

In the 20th century alone, smallpox has accounted for as many as 300-million deaths, Measles as many as 200-million, Malaria as high as 250-million, and Tuberculosis as much as 100-million. Even now as many as 250,000 die annually from seasonal influenza (the flu).

Kind of paints a bleak picture of the fragile state of human existence.

That's staggering. And you didn't even include AIDS. I heard recently that non-infectious diseases now kill more people annually world-wide than infectious diseases do.

[Heloise Wild]

It's just that we don't think about it... Like with accidents: when a plane crushes or there is a terrorist attack, the entire country is panicing. And yet you probably have a higher chance of dying from eating potato salad than by being blown up by a bomb. Life is fragile indeed!
And it looks like, with so much sh*t happening, humanity can only remember the most dramatic events...
In school, we studied all the wars extensively, but there was hardly ever more than one paragraph about epidemics, and nothing at all about all the other diseases. While, in fact, before the early 20th century, life expectancy stayed at about 40 pretty much everywhere, and every one in several infants would die. People's everyday lifes are not fun enough to put them into textbooks, I guess. = ) But we are lucky to live in our times.

[JuniperWoolf]

I consider diseases a force of nature. They're not created by us (well, most of the time - viruses usually evolve on their own), whereas we have a say over whether or not we shoot someone. There's a difference between dying and being killed. I think that's why we "remember" wars. They serve as an example of what actions to avoid ourselves.

Kind of paints a bleak picture of the fragile state of human existence.

It's also a testament to our survival capabilities. We survived terrible diseases for thousands of years of years before we even knew about sterilization. I'm not too worried about disease wiping out our species. Because our species is so widely distributed there are always going to be isolated people who won't ever come into contact with even the most virulent disease. Those people will survive to breed and over time our population will grow again. Even just a handful of humans is enough, we're clever, enough humans will be able to isolate themselves if they see something coming and they'll be able to survive afterwards. We're a pretty unique species. We know how disease spreads and we know how to protect ourselves. I think we can endure almost any plague or epidemic.

[Alexander III]

There is a huge difference to me. A man does not choose to get the plague, but a man chooses to go fight a war. Dying from disease is just death. Dying in war, is participating in an outstanding human tradition. More men in human history have died in battle than there are men alive. Dying in war is joining those countless billions in a tragic and beautifull human tradition.

[Ragnar Freund]

gone.

[OrphanPip]

There is a huge difference to me. A man does not choose to get the plague, but a man chooses to go fight a war. Dying from disease is just death. Dying in war, is participating in an outstanding human tradition. More men in human history have died in battle than there are men alive. Dying in war is joining those countless billions in a tragic and beautifull human tradition.

Well it's not quite true everyone who fights in wars chose to do so. A lot of people fighting in wars historically have been slaves, and then after the rise of the professional army they have increasingly been the poorest of our society who have little other opportunities.

Also I don't think more than 6 billion people have died in wars.

[MarkBastable]

More men in human history have died in battle than there are men alive.

That's not true. You just made that up, didn't you?

On the other hand, I think it might be true that there are more people alive today than have ever lived - which would make your claim a logical impossibility*. It would also suggest that human existence isn't that fragile at all.




Actually, not impossible, but incredibly unlikely.

[Ragnar Freund]

gone.

[Mutatis-Mutandis]

On the other hand, I think it might be true that there are more people alive today than have ever lived - .

That can't be right. I mean, just thinking about it . . . it can't be right.

As to why wars are remembered more than disease, I agree with what others have touched on. Wars are so much more dramatic than disease. Wars have guns and explosions and stories ... disease just makes people drop over dead--there isn't much to it.

[OrphanPip]

What??? What's with you people and crazy, made-up statistics?

Well it's not that far fetched because of the nature of exponential population growth. The actual truth of the matter is complicated, it depends on how far back you go, and who deserves counting, because of things like infant mortality rate and the like. Most estimates place the number of people alive today as around 5-10% of those who have ever lived.

It would be much higher if we considered only those who lived to adulthood.

[JuniperWoolf]

It's true, the world's human population is having a huge boom. We only crossed the 1 billion mark in 1804. Considering that humans have been around for roughly 2.4 million years it's obvious that even if it isn't technically correct that there are more people alive today than have ever lived, it took us much longer to get to one billion than it did to two, or 6.8 billion, which indicates exponential growth. Here, look at this graph:



Kind of looks like someone just tipped it onto it's side in the mid Victorian, doesn't it? The only population trend that almost matches this one is a J-Curve (or exponential curve). The difference is that we haven't had the sharp decline yet, and maybe we won't - who knows? Humans are the only species that has ever existed on earth with such a highly rational mind. We've figured out a lot, maybe we'll find some way to sustain such a large population.

At any rate, I'm quite sure that we can survive a plague, even if we crash. We've survived population crashes before (albeit small ones in comparison to our now huge population), check out the point on the graph that indicates the Black Death. Species crash all the time, the rabbit species in my own area took a nosedive in 1978 and yet there are still rabbits here. Some survived the die off to breed.

[Ragnar Freund]

gone.

[keilj]

That's not true. You just made that up, didn't you?
.

He meant "in battle with death." They were battling death, and lost - hyuk