Pandemic

[Jozanny]

Since we are all now under serious threat from swine flu, I thought I would mention that I have been reading John Kelly's sincere but uneven study of The Black Death, The Great Morality, which evokes Camus, to my mind, even though the author probably doesn't intend comparisons to the more famous author's work. Modern civilization isn't going to save us from the next great outbreak. You'd be surprised.

[Lokasenna]

Pandemics are a part of nature; humanity just has to whether the storm. In the 1300s, the Black Death wiped out a third of Europe's population in six years; we endure.

[Jozanny]

I will pull up some of Kelly's figures when I have the opportunity. I am frying pork chops at the moment.

[Emil Miller]

Since we are all now under serious threat from swine flu, I thought I would mention that I have been reading John Kelly's sincere but uneven study of The Black Death, The Great Morality, which evokes Camus, to my mind, even though the author probably doesn't intend comparisons to the more famous author's work. Modern civilization isn't going to save us from the next great outbreak. You'd be surprised.

Hi Jozany,

The current outbreak of swine flu is only one of a number of similar outbreaks in recent years and, while there is the usual feeling of deja vu about it, it is a bit like Russian roulette and only a matter of time before the world gets hit with a pandemic. Modern communications and an increasingly overpopulated world are likely to result in a global outbreak at some point even if the present epidemic is contained.

[Chava]

I can't help but think... Epola, Bird flu, foot and mouth disease, you name it, and we've been told it's the next big thing...

What about the fact that more than a million people die each year of Malaria? Which is spreading by the way, due to global warming.

[Stargazer86]

There are so many tragic communicable diseases. We can't live in fear but we should be aware that the day may (soon) come when there is another pandemic. While modern medicine may thwart the spread of many diseases (i.e. flu, malaria...at least in the developed world) nature will take its course one way or another. Though it may sound cruel, we are facing some serious damages due to overpopulation and a pandemic may well be nature's population control...

[subterranean]

Suppose the rapid increase of people movements from one place to another also contributes to the spread of certain infectious diseases.

[Virgil]

Pandemics are a part of nature; humanity just has to whether the storm. In the 1300s, the Black Death wiped out a third of Europe's population in six years; we endure.

It was more than a third, and in Italy it was over two thirds. The scope of the black death goes way beyond the imagination. It must have been horrific.

[Lokasenna]

It was more than a third, and in Italy it was over two thirds. The scope of the black death goes way beyond the imagination. It must have been horrific.

I thought it was a third over all? Anyway, it was certainly horrific - a fair bit of literature (both religious and secular) of the time talks about it as a precursor to the End of Days. Now that must have been terrifying - everyone dying, and both the Church and the state saying that Judgement was coming.

[Stargazer86]

I thought it was a third over all? Anyway, it was certainly horrific - a fair bit of literature (both religious and secular) of the time talks about it as a precursor to the End of Days. Now that must have been terrifying - everyone dying, and both the Church and the state saying that Judgement was coming.

Hence the rise in popularity of self flagellation. I read somewhere that there were groups of these self punishers that would travel from town to town during the plague to offer attonement for everyone's sins in hopes that God would forgive and end the suffering brought on by the plague. Ironically, I'm sure this town to town traveling just spread the plague even more.

[The Atheist]

With all of the panic-mongering by media, I thought it might be useful to record a few facts for people who are worried about the outbreak.

Yes, there have been lots of cases of swine flu, but so far, it does not look like a global problem.

It is a type-A influenza, examples of which infect people every year.

It does not appear to be more virulent or contagious than any other influenza outbreak.

The number of deaths is small for an outbreak of 1.5 months duration and it seems to be no more likely to kill you than any other influenza.

The vast majority of people who have had have recovered with no lasting effects.

It responds well to anti-viral treatment.

I'm not sure why the world media has whipped up a frenzy on this one - maybe they're trying to make up for the H5N1 bird flu which never arrived.

It appears that the most-vulnerable, the elderly, are not at major risk from the outbreak as the worst cases have been in people not exposed to previous H1N1 epidemics, Russian flu and the like.

That said, if you have a fever, take care, stay warm and drink water. Visit the doctor if necessary and try to maintain anti-infection habits - use and disposal of tissues, washing hands, etc.

[Virgil]

Thanks for that A. The media certainly has a way of blowing things out of proportion.

[The Atheist]

Thanks for that A. The media certainly has a way of blowing things out of proportion.

Yep.

The concern to me is that they're in danger of crying wolf once too often.

[Lokasenna]

Agreed. Its hard to be flustered when the media goes in for its usual state of sensationalist nonsense. The radio this morning was panicking that it might reach Britain, the papers are predicting the deaths of hundreds of millions of people - which is exactly what they did with SARS, and sod all happened there.

[The Atheist]

The big problem seems to be the numbers being used in the media. I see talk of "1600 confirmed cases", yet if the disease has already spread to USA, France, Canada and New Zealand - as seems extremely likely - then there must have been a hell of a lot more than 1600 Mexicans with swine flu, so the death rate of 108 isn't anywhere near as appalling as it looks.

Here is the official CDC site which is updated constantly.