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Memories of the 28th Century

2020 or 1860

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Itís too early to predict a winner in the 2020 presidential election with much confidence, but a few things have happened recently that provide some reasonable ideas. In early October, the Dems had another debate, and the alleged pundits think that Elizabeth Warren came off the winner, and Biden was in second, but Lizzie has since then come out with her 70 trillion dollar medical insurance plan, and Biden continues to plug along. I get the impression that Sanders is seen as falling, and the munchkins remained munchkins until they finish dropping out. That situation probably will remain for some time, and it will turn into a two person race, except that Bernie with his collection of believers will persist. But there is nothing unusual on the Democrat side; although that may change.

But the Republicans have a strange and unenviable situation: Trump is falling down, even if the impeachment doesn't happen, he will face a number of state charges in New York and perhaps elsewhere; take a look at the attached article from ProPublica (link below), which got its hands on some filings that suggest the level of his commercial lies. It is common for commercial real estate developers to lie or to hire people who will lie for them, but there are limits, and the ProPublica article indicates that he may have gone too far, and some accountants may have to face ethics charges. Even if there were no criminal acts involved, there appears to be room for civil actions. We will see about that. And Trump's stonewalling of the impeachment related hearings has started to break with some state department people testifying. Someone should have told Trump that career civil servants almost always have solid professional ethics. And perhaps the worst thing is that A Federal Appeals Court has decided that Trumps tax returns have to be turned over in one of the several legal actions where they have been requested.

I don't know when it will happen, but even if he appears to be beating the impeachment case, Trump will drop out of the 2020 presidential race. He may claim health problems, or the civil actions against his organization may become too embarrassing, or it may come out that he really is poorer than I am, but the Republicans will have to find a standard bearer, and that won't be easy. At present there are four Republicans chasing the nomination, including Trump; the other three are Weld, Sanford, and Walsh. I favor Weld, but none of the three is making much headway, yet, and after Trump drops there will be some other people getting in. Many people have suggested that Kasich, Ohio governor, would get in, and that is a possibility. We will have to wait to see. The question is which one will look better after Trump Drops.

I think that the Republicans will have an advantage, even with Trump's embarrassing of the party; I think that Bernie will be an extra candidate in the presidential race. My personal preference is for Weld; he was a U.S. Attorney, and after that he was twice elected governor of Massachusetts. He certainly is qualified, but so are the other two. But I was trying to slowly ease into the prediction that the Republican candidate will win, and he will thank Bernie and Lizzie for that, because those two have adherents who probably will not go along with whoever the Dems nominate, and that division of the Dems will hand the 2020 election to the Republicans. But I have to hedge that a little, because if Pence gets involved, then that will make it a real mess, and Pence might even win; although no one will know any good reasons why he should be elected.

Pence's entry into the presidential race might turn it into as much a mess as the 1860 election was, but we don't want to think about repeating that, and he won't make the decision until December, so he may have trouble getting on primary ballots, and that might make the Republican nomination a fight down to the wire.

On the Democrat side, I think that Iowa and New Hampshire will be of no consequence, and the battling will go one for some time. But the loser probably won't be noble in the loss, and Bernie and his followers may jump ship. Bernie never was a Dem, and he might go back to making an independent run. But Biden has the best chance, even though Elizabeth Warren would be the funniest candidate since Gracie Allen ran as the candidate of the Surprise Party in 1940, and the Democrats probably will make that choice.

So, we will have a Republican, a Trumpist, Biden, and Sanders on the ballot a year from now. That is, it will be like 1890 it will have four major candidates. Maybe one party will die and another be born.

That's enough for now. Let's make the popcorn and sit back.


https://www.propublica.org/article/t...Vm7Z3zC-jqC3BE

New Hampshire Primaries
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politic...2020-primaries


This is a slightly edited version of a post I had up before the site crashed.

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