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Memories of the 28th Century

History Again Repeats

Rating: 2 votes, 5.00 average.
Today (mon. 10/28/2019) I had a conversation about the 2020 presidential election. Over the weekend, Trump was booed and treated to the chant "Lock him up" at a World Series game. I recalled how I had thought a few years ago that 2020 may look a lot like 1860, when it comes to the presidential election. The person I was talking with agreed. Then we tried to figure out who the four major candidates will be. I don't recall who we determined on, but we didn't have confidence in the choices, but it was a matter of how the two major parties will split. But he and I agreed that Trump in approaching the end of the road, and the booing at the World Series shows how bad it is for Trump. One would expect that sports fans would be a source for reliable support for him.

It is just a matter of when he will step away and a question of how he will do it. He probably would love to fight the impeachment, but even he isn't so stupid that he thinks that he will beat the charges, especially after some of the things that he has tweeted or otherwise expressed. If he doesn't want to simply resign and flee the country, he could fake a heart attack and go to some warm, comfortable country to convalesce. That would leave Pence to try to pick up the pieces.

I suspect that the Republican Party will split into the pro-Trump wing, that Pence might try for the support of, but someone else might try for that also. The rest of the republican Party might support any of several candidates, including: Weld, Romney, Nicky Haley (a favorite of the guy I was talking to). Kasich, or someone else.

I would like for a different party to pick up some of the loose voters, especially the Libertarian Party, which could do well with many Republicans, especially traditional Republicans.

The Democrat party might also split, but the main nominee would be one of the present front runners: Biden, Sanders, or Warren. It is possible that Sander's supporters would leave the Democrat Party, because Bernie never was one of them. Where they would take their votes is an open question. In the past Bernie might have started an Independent run, but that isn't as likely now. Many of the supporters of the various Democrat contenders would sit out the election, but they would be a minority that might just spice things up. But I think that Elizabeth Warren has the potential of driving some people away from the party, but I have no idea where they would go. And some Warren supporters would not support Biden.

I have been told that some of Bernie's supporters voted for Trump in 2016. If that shows how they think, then they might go to Pence this time, or they might go with the Libertarian Party. I have been thinking of the 2020 election paralleling the 1860 election, when a small, new party took the presidency, so maybe the Libertarian Party could take the place of the Republican Party, but that would mean that they would have to have a really good nominee.

The suggestion of Nicky Haley as Republican nominee is good for several reasons. She is an intelligent, good-looking woman, and there are many women who would love to vote for a woman, and there are many men who would be happy to vote for an attractive woman. I don't know enough her skills to make a decision. I don't think much of the women who are running as Democrats; although some of them probably are well qualified. I think that Biden has a good shot at the job, because he is a politician, rather than being an ideologue, so he is capable of compromising, and that is important. The only one in the running now that I would be willing to vote for is Bill Weld, but he is not polling well against Trump, but one of the Republicans are polling well against Trump.

But the most important thing is when Trump will throw in the towel, or if he will demand a final vote in the Senate. If he decides that he will lose in the Senator, then I think that Trump will do almost anything to avoid the shame of being thrown out of office. The idea that he might fake a heart attack came up, and I don't think that he is above that, and if it got him to resign or invoke the 25th, then it would be fine with me. I hope that he will be gone by the time of the New Hampshire primaries.

Comments

  1. Norm53's Avatar
    Lots of wishful thinking here.

    1. DC fans are not representative of the nation's voters.
    2. Senate will not convict T.
    3. T will be the R presidential candidate in 2020. Haley? Dream on.
    4. The race will be T v. Biden, or T v. Warren. Bernie is out, but he could be a spoiler.
    Updated 10-30-2019 at 11:00 AM by Norm53
  2. PeterL's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Norm53
    Lots of wishful thinking here.

    1. DC fans are not representative of the nation's voters.
    2. Senate will not convict T.
    3. T will be the R presidential candidate in 2020. Haley? Dream on.
    4. The race will be T v. Biden, or T v. Warren. Bernie is out, but he could be a spoiler.
    Thanks for the laugh, but I did not mention your vote or how you might cast it in the blog, nor did I mention the impeachment going to trial, nor did I suggest that D.C. fans were typical of anything. But I greatly doubt the truthiness of your point three. But I also have great doubts about Haley's future also.