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Memories of the 28th Century

More Conspiracies Slain

Rating: 6 votes, 5.00 average.
There is another question here. Why donít people use the simple tools of logic to determine the validity of conspiracy theories? Occamís Razor (link below) is well suited for determining whether an argument is valid. Fundamentally, Occamís Razor states that the simplest explanation probably is the most accurate one. Letís see what happens when we apply the Razor to some conspiracy theories.

The JFK Assassination is a problem, until we apply Occamís Razor. ďEntities must not be multiplied beyond necessity,Ē so we have to get rid of the unnecessary entities, and all entities regarding the assassination of President Kennedy are unnecessary, except the actual assassin, but thatís the problem, because we cannot say with certainty who did it. There are too many who are said to have been there and planning to kill. Oh well, not every thing can be simplified.

Let us look at the 9/11 attacks. Does the official explanation cover all relevant matters and adequately explain them? Yes, the official explanation is adequate, and I donít know of any loose ends. All of those alleged holes in the explanation are plugged. Does the official explanation fit the evidence? Yes, as far as I know the explanation fits the evidence, which isnít true for the conspiracy theory.

Applying the razor to Climate Change is fairly easy. Does the official explanation explain all relevant evidence? No, but the traditional explanation does. Were any unnecessary entities added to the official explanation? Yes, The matter of CO2 being converted into a major greenhouse gas was unnecessary, and it doesnít fit the evidence. Is there an explanation that fits the evidence and does not require that anything be added? Yes, it has been known for a long time that there are cycles in climate; some periods have been warmer than others, and there is historical data going back more than two thousand years that shows warm periods and cold periods. There was the Roman Warm period (250 BCE Ė 450 CE), Dark Ages Cold Period (450 Ė 950), Medieval warm Period (800 Ė 1350), Little Ice Age that lasted from about 1300 to 1900. ďYes, climate change is real ... just like the world's climate alarmists vehemently contend. In fact, it's the norm.Ē http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/20...ieval-and.html


Then thereís the matter of Paul McCartney having died In 1966. He didnít, and it was a known joke from before it first went public. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_is_dead This article seems to be reasonably complete. There never was anything to Paul having died; it was just some extra publicity.

Then thereís the matter of Shakespeareís works having been written by someone else, and several people have been suggested. This is an excellent place for Occamís Razor. The plays seem to have been written by one man, and there is a great deal of evidence that Shakespeare was involved with all of them, while there is no evidence that any other individual was involved with all of the, The conspiracy rests of Shakespeare not having been wealthy, so he couldnít have written the plays; that isnít evidence at all. The plays were attributed to Shakespeare at the time, and several others also, so there is good reason to think that he wrote them. I donít understand why this bit of foolishness didnít disappear years ago.

I donít usually even think of chemtrails when Iím thinking of conspiracy theories, but they are on the list. Most people know that jet airplanes leave exhaust behind them that is largely water vapor. In the upper atmosphere the water vapor condenses and appears as elongated clouds well known as contrails. Some people donít believe that these are what they are, and they opine that the contrails are made up of chemicals that the government is poisoning the people with. There is no evidence for that idea, so Occamís Razor cuts it apart.

Peak Oil also makes the list, but Iím not sure why. Peak Oil is the idea that we will run out of oil in not too long a time. There is a legitimate debate on this issue, because there are those who believe that petroleum is from dead plant and animal matter, and others who regard it as derived from polymerized primordial gases. And there is a possibility that both exist. There is a legitimate concern as to how long reserves will last. When I last divided known reserves by annual consumption, the result was a little over two hundred years. I don't know how long the theory says we have oil for.


I was also surprised to see McCarthyism included on the list. I thought that McCarthyism was dead, and it has been shown that some of Joe McCarthyís claims were true, while others were false. The Communist International is essentially dead, so letís not revive it.

The New World Order is still a popular conspiracy theory, even after my earlier comments about it. It is from the Great Seal of the United States of America. Among the conspiracy lovers it is connected with the Illuminati (the Enlightened), which was the name of an Enlightenment era group in Germany that existed from about 1795 to 1810. Being of the Enlightment, they espoused ideas like free speech, free trade, free thinking, secular government, etc. The conspiracists think that the NWO and Illuminati are trying to control the world and everyone's mind. They don't have any evidence for their idea, so the idea of the NWO and the Illuminati being badies has no standing.

There are other conspiracy theories, and nearly all of them can be knocked apart by looking for evidence and finding none or by applying Occam's Razor. Some of the others just aren't worth thinking about.

If you think of any more Conspiracy Theories that need to be destroyed, then please let me know. There are more out there, but I don't often hear them, because people know that I will rip them to shreds.

Medieval Warm Period existed worldwide
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/20...ieval-and.html

http://list25.com/top-25-most-popula...racy-theories/

This is a rather lengthy article about Occamís Razor and how it can be perverted.
http://science.howstuffworks.com/inn...cams-razor.htm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam%27s_razor

Article on climate cycles, includes a graph of temperatures since the end of the last Ice Age about 12,000 BCE.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_oscillation

http://dailycaller.com/2013/12/13/st...edieval-times/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retreat...ers_since_1850

Comments

  1. free's Avatar
    I think that it has all started with Thomas Hobbes and his idea of 'social contract'. Just as with christianity, at the begining it was supposed to help people's equality and easier life, but then (as everything in this world) its other side started to prevail.
  2. PeterL's Avatar
    Yes, it started plain and simple, then it became an opportunity for con-artists. Several of these things were like that.