Blog Comments

  1. PeterL's Avatar
    That's how the consumer part of the recovery starts, but the problem can be with the producers, who have closed facilities, gotten rid of workers, or even gone broke; in the 1930's after the Keynesian push and FDR's programs got individuals buying somewhat, the U.S. economy was dull and listless, until war production started for export after 1938. Without a push like that recovery can take a lot longer. And sometimes there is no recovery, as hadppened with the U.S. computer industry after the dotcom bust. The computer companies recovered by sending production to lower cost countries, but the workers never got equivalent jobs.

    We will have to wait to see what happens this time around.
  2. MANICHAEAN's Avatar
    I remember doing work on the trade cycle in the LSE back in 1963. If memory serves me correct, the recovery upwards, after an actual depression, comes when stocks are used up and have to be replenished. This gives the Keynesian boost to start it all over again.

    But I'm sure that the closer coordination & independence of Central Bank Governors today would provide the required stimulus anyway, to mitigate a rerun of the 1920's, despite Master Trump.

    By the way, you see now that our future king has attained a new regal title as "The Prince of Whales?"
  3. PeterL's Avatar
    I may have given Trump too much credit for thinking, but there might be a brain hidden away. He has made too much money from bankruptcy in the past for not to have been taught that going broke is good. I don't know what will happen or when, but the conditions have been set up for a serious recession.
  4. MANICHAEAN's Avatar
    I really wonder with the present incumbent if he has any clear thought out strategy at all. He will, as his past record shows, turn on a sixpence if his base starts raising serious concerns.

    Intriguing comment "another possibility is that he is trying to hand financial primacy to Putin." Surely not, one would say, but with this guy there is always that small nagging doubt of his relationship with the Russian Bear. Too many reports of: Soviet banking support in the past, huddled negotiations, and deference to their leader.
  5. PeterL's Avatar
    The next one will be about starting depressions. That's something tht everyone wants to do,, odn't it?