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Memories of the 28th Century

Miscellaneous thoughts about miscellaneous matters

  1. They Cried Wolf

    by , 04-15-2020 at 07:53 PM (Memories of the 28th Century)
    They Cried Wolf

    If this upsets you, then I apologizes in advance.

    Epidemiologists don't have huge amount of work, when there is no epidemic going on, so they plan for the next major pandemic and reflect on the last major pandemic. The model for a bad pandemic is still the Spanish Flu of 1918 (actually 1917, 1918, and 1919), and the expectation is for a pandemic that will be even deadlier, and at least 50 million died in that pandemic. And the response to Covid-19 ...
  2. Creating a Pandemic

    by , 03-27-2020 at 08:54 PM (Memories of the 28th Century)
    I don't have the detailed information, but judging from what shows up online, it appears that the R0 of the Covid19 virus is about three or a little more, that means that each person infected spreads it to three other people. That's a middling level of contagiousness, but it may be deceptive, because about 50% of infections are asymptomatic. That person running around the block might be carrying a serious infection that attacks lungs, but she may run a five minute mile and show no signs of the infection. ...
  3. Following the Trends

    by , 09-08-2013 at 03:21 PM (Memories of the 28th Century)
    I already explained that following trends until they end is usually a winning strategy for predicting the future. By looking at trends that already exist we can make predictions that might be accurate. Individual trends are simple, but putting them together is more interesting.
    In high technology the trend for the next century will be toward Quantum computing and time travel and trans-dimensional travel.

    In government the present trend is toward centralization of power. This ...
  4. U. S. Politics After the End

    by , 05-08-2013 at 08:08 PM (Memories of the 28th Century)
    The shape of government will change everywhere after the Great Pandemic will decrease population by 80%, and the politics involved with the governments will also change. Teasing apart the results of the changes is difficult, and it is likely that new elements will arise, but the general political culture of most countries would be unchanged, and that means that there will be cut-throat politics in the U.S. Just as one can read the political satires of Jonathan Swift from the early 18th centuries ...
  5. Government After the End

    by , 04-27-2013 at 02:48 PM (Memories of the 28th Century)
    Governments have several legitimate functions these days: to try to regulate activities, to provide services that are not profitable but are still essential, and to fill the pockets of the higher-ups; in addition, governments try to tell every Harry, Sue, John, and Jane how he or she should live his life in all details. After the population drops to 20% of its present level there won’t be enough people available for government service, so government will not be able intrude into the lives of people ...